The decision of Congress to go it alone in the by-elections on seven assembly constituencies in Rajasthan scheduled to be held on November 13 is likely to prove counterproductive to the party as also its former INDIA allies – the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the Bharatiya Adiwasi Party (BAP).

The grand old party contested the Lok Sabha elections under the banner of INDIA in alliance with the RLP and the BAP in the state. The tie-up proved successful as the three allies together snatched 11 of the 25 seats from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with Congress winning nine seats and the RLP and the BAP bagging one seat each.

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However, ahead of the bypolls, the state unit of Congress decided against continuing the alliance with both parties.

Accordingly, the party has fielded its own candidates in all seven poll-bound assembly segments not only altering the poll equations on the battlefield but also changing the entire poll narrative against these parties.

The move of walking out of the alliance for the bypolls in Rajasthan coupled with persisting buoyancy from the BJP’s win in the Haryana assembly polls has changed the entire scenario at hustings here in seven assembly segments.

At the onset, Congress and allies were fairly comfortable and confident of saving their bastions in the bye-elections as five of the seven seats going to poll next week are vacated by Congress, RLP, and BAP MLAs.

The Ramgarh seat in the Alwar district has also fallen vacant due to the death of Congress legislator Zuber Khan. Only one of the seven poll-bound seats was won by the BJP in the 2023 elections. Hence, it was not entirely baseless if Congress leaders were making tall claims about the possibility of by-elections being a one-sided affair.

However, now ground realities have changed with Congress as well as its two former allies appearing to be on the ‘back-foot’. The BJP, having less at stakes of its own at the hustings the next week, appeared to be fairly comfortable and confident.

Now the present-day scenario is that on three seats, Khinvsar, Chorasi (ST), and Salumbar (ST), where the RLP, BAP, and Congress could have a commanding position in the event of continuance of the alliance, they are finding themselves pitted in tough triangular contests.

RLP chief Hanuman Beniwal and his family have won the Khinvsar seat five times in a row besides his two victories in Parliamentary general elections from Nagaur. However, in the post-broken alliance scenario, Beniwal’s wife Kanika finds herself pitted in a tough (and unpredictable) triangular contest in the strong family bastion.

Likewise, a difficult triangular contest in the Chorasi (ST) assembly constituency of the Dungarpur district, involving contestants of defender BAP(Anil Katara), BJP(Kari Lal), and Congress (Mahesh Roat) also caused nightmares for all three contestants.

Rajkumar Roat of BAP has bagged this seat twice in 2018 and 2023 and vacated the seat after winning (in alliance with Congress) the Banswara (ST) Lok Sabha seat earlier this year.

Now, after a break-up with the INDIA bloc, Roat’s party BAP is fighting a bitter battle to save the bastion.

The BAP, a newly emerged political force in the state, is so annoyed with the disruption of the poll alliance that it has fielded one more candidate (Jitesh Katara) from Salumbar (ST) and extended support to a Congress rebel Naresh Meena in the Deoli-Uniara assembly segment with the sole motive of creating problems for the Congress by causing division of the latter’s (committed) votes.

All these factors certainly give the ruling BJP a reason to smile in view of its improved prospects at the hustings while Congress, on the other hand, doesn’t have many avenues but to pin hopes on infighting and dissidence within the rival camp (BJP).

Moreover, the impact of the break-up in the state can be seen beyond the above-mentioned four seats as the dampened spirits within the separated allies and annoyance among the Jat community due to the loss to RLP and the community, also caused some negative effects in Jhunjhunu.