With the principal opposition AIADMK and the BJP boycotting the February 5 crucial bypoll for the Tamil Nadu Assembly from Erode East constituency, both are apparently yielding the opposition political space to a resurgent ‘Naam Tamilar Katchi’ (NTK) of filmmaker Seeman, espousing Tamil nationalism.

DMK nominee VC Chandirakumar and the NTK candidate MK Seethalakshmi filed their nominations on Friday, the last date for filing them. Since the nine others who have filed the papers are independents, the contest is primarily between the ruling DMK and the NTK. The Tamilaga Vettri Kazham (TVK) of actor Vijay has also stayed away from the contest.

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The byelection is necessitated by the demise of Congress veteran and former Union Minister EVKS Elangovan, grand nephew of rationalist social reformer ‘Periyar’ EV Ramasamy, the Dravidian icon. He too was elected in a bypoll in 2023 following the death of his son, Evera Thirumagan. This time, the Congress has given up the seat to its dominant alliance partner on a request.

More than making it easy for the DMK, the boycott of the AIADMK, DMDK of late actor Vijayakant, and the BJP-led NDA has opened up an opportunity for Seeman to gain more political space. For, the NTK alone will be taking on the might of the DMK and its allies at the hustings and project itself as an alternative to the DMK ideologically as well.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, the NTK, ploughing a lonely furrow, secured more than 8 per cent vote share. It clearly indicates that Tamil nationalist politics of Seeman, however crude chauvinistic it might be, has become mainstream. Further, this has helped the NTK to gain recognition as a recognised State Party by the Election Commission.

The BJP denies that their boycott will result in the party and the NDA losing the opposition space to the NTK. “Our focus is on the 2026 Assembly election to unseat the DMK from power. Everyone knows that the DMK will make the election a farce as was the case last time when the voters were herded into shelters like cattle. They will use money and muscle power besides misuse of the official machinery. Hence, our boycott is not a negation of the democratic exercise, but a political message,” says State BJP vice- president Narayanan Thirupathy. The AIADMK too has proffered similar justification.

However, analysts are of the view that the boycott is advantage for Seeman. “More than any other leader, Seeman has been very vocal and consistent in his opposition to the DMK. That the principal opposition AIADMK as well as the BJP, eyeing the opposition space for long, aided by the DMK and the AIADMK, are staying away from the electoral battle, is a great advantage for Seeman and the NTK. Though the reasons for the boycott are understandable, it is undeniable that the field is wide open for the NTK,” explains C Lakshmanan, who was formerly teaching at the Madras Institute of Development Studies (MIDS). In his view, the NTK would increase its vote share with creditable performance by getting the votes of AIADMK and the BJP, besides reaping the anti-DMK votes.