The upcoming assembly by-elections in nine seats in Uttar Pradesh are being viewed as a litmus test for the BJP, following the party’s recent setback against the Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the bypolls for the Milkipur seat in Ayodhya, previously postponed by the Election Commission of India (ECI) due to ongoing litigation in the High Court, may also take place alongside the assembly by-elections. The petitioner withdrew his plea on Wednesday, and the court is expected to deliver its verdict on Thursday.

The BJP wants to settle scores from the Lok Sabha elections by performing strongly in the upcoming assembly by-elections. The party also seeks to send a significant message for the assembly elections scheduled for 2027.

Even before the announcement of the by-election dates, the ruling party has deployed all its ministers on the ground. RLD’s support is further bolstering the BJP’s hopes.

Political experts believe that the BJP has largely recovered from the PDA (backward, Dalit, minority) strategy employed by Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, which had taken the BJP by surprise during the Lok Sabha elections. Apart from this, the BJP has made strides in dispelling the misconceptions regarding reservation that had been propagated among backward classes and Dalits by both Congress and the Samajwadi Party.

The BJP is focusing on preserving all its seats while aiming to make inroads into the opposition camp during the coming by-elections. To achieve this, the Yogi government has assigned 30 ministers to these key constituencies, including 14 at the cabinet rank and 16 ministers of state.

According to BJP sources, four ministers have been specifically tasked with campaigning in the Karhal seat of Mainpuri, which became vacant following the resignation of Akhilesh Yadav.

In the upcoming by-elections, 10 seats have fallen vacant — nine due to MLAs becoming MPs and one resulting from the punishment of SP MLA Irfan Solanki.

Despite this, the SP’s morale remains high following its success in winning 37 seats during the Lok Sabha elections. The party has announced candidates for six of these seats, while the BJP is yet to declare its candidates.

Bridging the caste consolidation in UP poses a significant challenge for the ruling BJP. Out of the nine seats where by-elections are to be held, the BJP and its allies currently control five.

In view of the by-elections for nine assembly seats in the state, the Model Code of Conduct has been implemented.

Additional Chief Electoral Officer Chandrashekhar said that as per the schedule decided by the Election Commission, the nomination process for the by-elections will commence with the release of the notification on October 18. The last date for submitting nominations is October 25. Nominations will be scrutinised on October 28, and candidates can withdraw their nominations until October 30.