GDP to decelerate in 2025, RBI to cut rates soon: Goldman Sachs
It forecast India's headline inflation at 4.2 per cent (average) in 2025 with food inflation at 4.6 per cent.
Indicating a positive stance towards India’s growth story, Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for India for 2023-24 by a massive 110 basis points to 7.8 per cent.
The bank’s economists also revised upward their prediction for 2024-25 by 50 basis points to 7 per cent .
One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Barclays’ growth forecast for 2024-25, at 7 per cent is now in line with that of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
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“Considering today’s print and strong momentum put up by growth numbers across Q1-Q3 of 2023-24, we raise our 2023-24 GDP growth forecast to 7.8 per cent with upside risks given Q1-Q3 2023-24 growth is currently averaging 8.2 per cent ,” Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics at Barclays, said in a note late Thursday.
“We also raise our forecast for 2024-25 GDP growth to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier. We expect the steady domestic growth momentum to continue, supported by continued increases in government capex, much anticipated rising private investment, and monetary easing,” he added.
He highlighted that the impressive GDP numbers could end up resulting in the Indian central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving the interest rates higher for even longer as there is “little urgency” to lower them.
Consequently, Barclays has pushed back its rate cut call to July-September from April-June.
The data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday said India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the quarter ending December 31, 2023 (Q3FY24) was 8.4 per cent, remaining the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
Notably, the GDP growth is higher than the RBI’s estimate of 6. 5 per cent . The Indian economy remained resilient with a robust 7.6 per cent growth rate of GDP in FY 2023-24 over and above 7 per cent growth rate in FY2022-23.
The rise in GDP growth was supported by robust growth in manufacturing, construction sectors and public administration.
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