The inflow of political bigwigs continued unabated even as Manipur geared up for the elections to the 11th Legislative Assembly (4 and 8 March) with results expected to be announced on 11 March.

The BJP, eyeing Manipur after Assam and Arunachal Pradesh (albeit by default), has literally left no stones unturned. Leading the charge in person himself was Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He was initially scheduled to address party supporters at the historic Kangla Fort (in the heart of Imphal) but a complaint from Irom Sharmila’s party, the People Resurgence and Justice Alliance, to the Election Commission objecting to Manipur’s sacred venue (the seat of temporal and political power since 33 AD) being used for political purposes, forced the Prime Minister to change the venue.It was held at the Langjing Achouba ground near the CRPF Group Centre. Modi was at his rhetoric best when he spewed venom on threetime chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh, calling him “10 per cent Ibobi”referring to the 10 per cent cut the chief minister is said to have levied on all financial and expenditure files that pass across his desk as he also holds the finance portfolio.

Modi also thundered that if elected to power, the BJP government will usher in a new spell of development in Manipur within 15 months, which the Congress government could not achieve in 15 years. He also castigated the Congress government for playing politics with the economic blockade imposed in the state since 1 November last year by the pro-NSCN (IM) Manipur-based United Naga Council. He reiterated that the Central security forces sent to break the blockade have been confined to their barracks. He also made a faux pas when he declared that if the BJP gets voted to power on 11 March, the economic blockade will be lifted on 13 March.

The next day Ibobi hit back by stating that if the allegation about his “commission”charges is proved then he would be willing to go to jail. He went on to charge the BJP, the UNC as well as the NSCN (IM) of being birds of the same feather, all committed to dismember Manipur, or else how could Modi be so sure about lifting the blockade on 13 March. He asked Modi to come out with the exact points the Centre has agreed to with the NSCN (IM) on 3 August 2015 in the Framework Naga Peace Agreement.

Earlier, Union home minister Rajnath Singh had clarified at Imphal that the word Manipur was not even mentioned in the Framework Agreement and Modi also said that the territorial integrity of Manipur will not be compromised when the final settlement with the Naga rebel group was reached. Union minister of state for home, Kiran Rijjiu also said that the people of Manipur will be consulted before and after signing the final agreement with the NSCN (IM). The Centre’s interlocutor RN Ravi had also said that the Framework Agreement was not the final pact.

On the other hand, the Congress is banking heavily on the threetime chief minister, who is contesting for a record fourth stint, for its poll campaign ~ he addressed at least three election rallies on a single day. The Congress high command has only deputed AICC vicepresident Rahul Gandhi to Imphal where he was introduced as the future Prime Minister in waiting. He did not display his boyishness and also said that the Congress leaders in Delhi knew nothing about the Framework Agreement and asked the BJP to come clean on its contents. He also said that his party stood for the territorial integrity of the state.

The BJP had been conducting poll campaigns for many months — it deputed its Union HRD minister Prakash Javadekar to smoothen the ground for the bevy of central leaders that was expected to land in Manipur. He was confident that his party would win as many as 40 seats. And close on the heels of the Modi visit came Amit Shah, the BJP’s president. He too harped on the corruption of the Ibobi regime saying that the state government had not been able to provide utilisation certificates for the hundreds of crores provided by the Centre for development projects. He promised to crack down on all corrupt politicians and officials and also said that if elected, his party will turn Manipur into a model state within five years. The chief ministers of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, Sarbananda Sonowal and Pema Khandu respectively, also came to canvass for the party. Rhetoric and promises apart,the BJP has not been able to declare a chief ministerial candidate, which suggests in-fighting within the BJP state unit.

There are at least five aspirants for the berth, four of them being former Congress leaders. The BJP’s disenchantment with the minority and women cadres has also come to light.For instance,only two women have been allotted party tickets, one a Naga, who is said to be a mistress of one of the CM hopefuls, and another a Kuki, who is the wife of a Kuki militant group’s leader.Only one Muslim has been given a party ticket and that too in the Muslim-dominated Lilong constituency.

The cloak and dagger operation that was carried out while the tickets were being distributed became clear when one of their top party leaders, a person who challenged Ibobi in Thoubal in 2012 on a BJP ticket and a woman at that, Indira Oinam, was denied the party ticket and instead a political novice was brought in to challenge Ibobi this time around.A disgruntled Indira announced that she will not be contesting this time and instead walked into Ibobi’s camp along with 7,000 of her supporters.

Actually,the anti-incumbency factor was working against Ibobi and his Congress party till the UNC imposed the economic blockade on 1 November,which is largely seen as the handiwork of the NSCN (IM). Then the creation of the seven new districts — including Kangpokpi after bifurcation of the Naga-dominated Senapati district, which is a stronghold of the UNC — suddenly catapulted Ibobi as the only Manipuri who can stand against the diktats of the NSCN (IM) and its supremo Th Muivah, and overnight his popularity soared.

To make matters even worse for the BJP, its central leaders echoed the statement of the NSCN (IM)/UNC that the creation of the new districts is nothing but following a colonial “Divide and Rule” policy. And thus the BJP was lured into Ibobi’s trap hook, line and sinker. Another vexing issue is the National Sports University, which the Centre had announced in 2014. Although the Centre was initially unhappy with the original site in Thoubal district and a new site in Imphal West District was allotted, it is yet to introduce a bill in Parliament to create the university and allocate funds for its construction.

The same goes for the pathetic National Highway No 53 linking Imphal with Jiribam and then Silchar in Assam, which is the second main lifeline of the state. The Centre, on the other hand, seems to be tightening the noose around Ibobi,but not politically.For instance, the CBI has re-opened the infamous BT Road shooting case in which a former militant and a pregnant woman were shot dead in July 2009 in the heart of Imphal in full view of people.

At that time, the assembly was in session. Ibobi announced that he had been briefed by the director general of police that a militant had been shot dead in an encounter with police commandos and a woman was killed in the cross-fire. Then a Delhi-based publication carried a series of pictures, which showed the former militant being shoved inside a pharmacy first and later his body being dragged out.

The CBI was roped in to investigate the killing. Then came the confessional statement of a head constable, N Herojit, that it was he who had shot the ex-PLA Sanjit and had done so on an order by then additional SP, AK Jhalajit. He added that the DGP as well the CM were in the loop. Herojit also gave a full account of the 130 others he had “executed” in cold blood.

Jhalajit was re-questioned by the CBI and summoned to Delhi but he conveniently fell sick and is now believed to be recuperating in the Regional Institute of Medical Sciences at Imphal. The crackdown on the incometax front has also begun — their sleuths raided the house of Ibobi’s close aide, who is said to have become a billionaire in the last 10 years.

All said and done,it is not known whether the political lotus will bloom in Manipur but BJP insiders are calculating that even if they get 10 seats, they will do another Arunachal Pradesh in the state. That remains to be seen but for the time being, it is advantage Ibobi.

The writer is the Imphal-based special representative of The Statesman.