The climate crisis is reaching an unprecedented level of urgency as global temperatures soar to record-breaking heights, with July 2023 marking another alarming milestone.

Based on the China global Merged Surface Temperature dataset 2.0 (CMST 2.0), a new study from Sun Yat-sen University has revealed that 2023 is expected to be the hottest year ever. This comes after NASA and the European Union Climate Monitor has also stated 2023 to be the hottest on record.

For the new study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, the researchers analysed the CMST 2.0 dataset and discovered that 2023 has already experienced the third hottest first half-year since records began,
narrowly trailing 2016 — the warmest year — and 2020 — the second warmest.

The global mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) surged to an all-time high in April, while global mean land air temperatures followed suit by reaching their second-highest monthly level in June. This combination resulted in
May being crowned the hottest month ever recorded for global mean surface temperatures.

Global temperatures will continue to rise into the second half of 2023, driven by factors including El Niño and widespread wildfires. Both global mean SSTs and global mean land temperatures reached unprecedented highs for
July, shattering previous records.

“Given the current trajectory and short-term forecast results of El Niño, along with the extremely positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that strongly influences global surface temperatures, 2023 is expected to be the hottest year on record,” said Prof. LI Qingxiang from Sun Yat-sen.

“Moreover, 2024 may witness even higher global surface temperatures,” added LI, also a research fellow at the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The CMST 2.0 dataset is one of the most comprehensive global surface temperature benchmark datasets to date. It takes into account the accuracy of both global and regional climate change, raising the level of global temperature monitoring to a new level.

The dataset integrates over a century’s worth of global land air temperature data and state-of-the-art research results from across the globe, resulting in an invaluable resource for climate scientists and policymakers.

Based on this dataset, the team was the first to point out that the much-talked-about “global warming hiatus” during the last decade was just a statistical artefact, and in 2022, the dataset was expanded to include Arctic temperature data, further enhancing its global coverage.

As global warming accelerates, the likelihood of extreme weather events and disasters increases. Therefore, immediate and sustained efforts are needed to mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change.