The campaigning for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, scheduled to be held on April 11 on eight seats of Western UP, comes to a halt. Political parties, namely Bhartiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal have put in their complete strength to campaign for their respective candidates. Star campaigners of the political parties, including PM Narendra Modi, UP CM Yogi Adityanath, Congress General Secretaries Priyanka Gandhi and Jyotiraditya Scindia, BSP Supremo Mayawati, SP President Akhilesh Yadav, RLD leaders Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhary campaigned in the favour of their candidates. While the BJP and Congress are contesting on their own, BSP-SP-RLD are in an alliance having pitted joint candidates.

The eight seats on which the polling would be held on April 11 are Meerut-Hapur, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Baghpat, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana and Saharanpur. In the 2014 elections, BJP had made a clean sweep on all of these eight seats. But in the by-election on Kairana seat last year, after the death of its MP Hukum Singh, the seat went to the joint candidate of the alliance.

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Lok Sabha elections 2019 in Western UP: Seat-wise round-up 

SAHARANPUR 

Raghav Lakhanpal- BJP (sitting MP)

Imran Masood- INC

Fazlur Rehman- BSP (Alliance)

The contest is triangular on this seat with Congress in the main fight.  The outcome of the contest will depend on the division of Muslim votes between Congress candidate Imran Masood and BSP candidate Fazlur Rehman while BJP’s sitting MP Raghav Lakhanpal is relying on the upper caste vote and the popularity of PM Modi.

In her first joint rally with Akhilesh and Ajit Singh in Deoband on Sunday, Mayawati had appealed to Muslims voters not to divide their votes. The massive turnout of people on Tuesday in the roadshow of Priyanka and the support of Bheem Army to the Congress candidate has brightened his chances. Yogi Adityanath and PM Modi had already addressed rallies here in which they had targeted Imran Masood for his controversial remark on Modi in 2014 election in which Masood had lost by a margin of just 65 thousand votes.

Voters break-up

Muslim- 6.25 lakh

Dalit- 3.25 lakh (Including Valmiki who are BJP supporters)

Vaishya- 1 lakh

Saini-60 thousand

OBC- 1.5 lakh

Punjabi- 1.25 lakh and others

2014 Elections

Raghav Lakhanpal (BJP) 4,72,999

Imran Masood (INC) 4.07,909

Margin- 65090

MUZAFFARNAGAR

Ajit Singh- RLD (Alliance)

Sanjeev Baliyan- BJP

RLD`s chief Ajit Singh is in the fray against BJP`s controversial Jat face and former minister Sanjeev Baliyan. On this seat, the Congress too decided not to contest making it easier for the RLD Chief Ajit Singh.  RLD`s winning equation of Jat and Muslim voters that was broken after Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013 has now been mended and the alliance is hoping to win this time.

In 2014, Ajit Singh had contested from his traditional Baghpat seat and had finished third. In this election, Singh has left Baghpat seat for son Jayant and decided to contest from Muzaffarnagar seat with an objective to bring Muslims and Jats together which he also successfully experimented through Kairana Model. The outcome of the election will approve or disapprove the Kairana model of the Alliance.

Voters break-up

Muslims- 4.85 lakh

Dalit- 2.5 lakh

Jat- 1.35 lakh

Brahmin- 62 thousand

Prajapati- 1.25 lakh

Saini- 72 thousand

Kashyap- 1 lakh

Thakur- 65 thousand and others

2014 Election

Sanjeev Baliyan (BJP) 6,53,391

Kadir Rana (BSP) 2,52,241

Margin- 4,01,150

BAGHPAT

Jayant Choudhary (RLD/Alliance)

Dr Satyapal Singh (BJP)

Baghpat constituency has been known as the bastion of Ch Charan Singh family. RLD chief Ajit Singh was elected MP from here 6 times and was defeated only twice in 1998 and 2014, both times by BJP. Now, carrying on the legacy, his son Jayant Choudhary is in the fray against BJP sitting MP Satyapal Singh. On this seat as well there is no Congress candidate. Jayant is strongly raising issues of youths and farmers.

Voters break-up

Jat- 3.80 lakh

Muslim- 4 lakh

Dalit- 1.75 lakh

Yadav- 50 thousand and others

2014 Elections

Dr Satyapal Singh (BJP) 4,23,475

Haji Gulam Mohammad (SP) 2,13,609

Margin- 2,09,866

KAIRANA 

Tabassum Hasan (SP/Alliance)

Pradeep Choudhary (BJP)

Harendra Malik (INC)

The politics of Alliance was first tried here in the by-election of 2018 after the demise of BJP MP Hukum Singh. RLD candidate of the alliance Tabassum Hasan defeated BJP`s candidate Mriganka Singh (daughter of Hukum Singh).  The Congress too was supporting the alliance then. But this time, Congress is in the fray and its candidate Harendra Malik has a good image and strong candidature. BJP, however, has replaced Mriganka with Pradeep Choudhary who will take on sitting MP and alliance candidate Tabassum Hasan. Kairana first came to limelight when the issue of alleged Hindus exodus was raised by Hukum Singh.

2014 Elections

Hukum Singh (BJP) 5,65,909

Nahid Hasan (SP) 3,29, 081

Margin- 2,36,988

MEERUT 

Rajendra Agarwal (BJP)

Haji Yaqub Qureshi (BSP/Alliance)

Harendra Agarwal- INC

This constituency is considered as the bastion of BJP which has again shown confidence in its two time MP Rajendra Agarwal. But, it is not easy for him to make his hat-trick as the challenge is from alliance candidate Haji Yaqub Qureshi and Congress candidate Harendra Aggarwal who is the son of late UP CM Babu Banarsi Das and is likely to cut Vaishya votes of BJP. Also, alliance candidate Haji Yaqoob Qureshi is in the fray with a solid backup of Muslim, Dalit, and anti-Modi votes. It seems that the Muslim votes here are polarising in the favour of Yaqub.

Voters break-up

Muslim- 5 lakh

Dalit- 4 lakh

OBC- 3 lakh

Vaishya- 3 lakh

Gujar- 1.20 lakh

Jat- 1 lakh

Punjabi- 80 thousand

Brahmin/ Tyagi- 70 thousand and others

2014 Elections

Rajendra Agarwal (BJP) 5,32,981

Mohd Shahid Akhlaq (BSP) 3,00,655

Margin-2,32,326

BIJNOR 

Bhartendra Singh (BJP)

Malook Nagar (BSP/Alliance)

Naseemuddin Siddiqui (INC)

BJP`s Bhartendra Singh is contesting to retain his seat but this time he is facing the challenge of a united opposition in the form of Alliance (SP-BSP- RLD) which has fielded Malook Nagar as BSP candidate. The presence of INC candidate Naseemuddin Siddiqui has made the election interesting because the division in Muslim votes could challenge the alliance.

Voters break-up

Muslim-5.5 lakh

Dalit- 2.5 lakh

Jat-1.20 lakh

Thakur-80 thousand

Gujar- 80 thousand and others

2014 Elections

Kunwar Bhartendra Singh (BJP) 4,86,913

Shahnawaz Rana (SP) 2,81,136

Margin-2,05,777

GAUTAM BUDH NAGAR (NOIDA)

Dr Mahesh Sharma (BJP)

Satveer Nagar (alliance)

Dr Arvind Singh (Congress)

Sitting MP and union minister Dr Mahesh Sharma is facing a strong protest in his constituency and the voters have passed a strong message against him. However, the BJP would get votes in the name of Modi. With a good percentage of Gujar votes in the seat, the alliance having pitted Gujar candidate Satveer Nagar is trying to bank on Muslim, Dalit, Jat as well as Gujar votes which could turn out to be a winning equation for its candidate in this election. Congress candidate Arvind Singh is also likely to share upper caste and Muslim votes.

Voters break-up

Muslim 3.5 lakh

Brahmin 4 lakh

Thakur 4 to 4.5 lakh

Gujar 3.5 to 4 lakh

Dalit 3.5 lakh

Others 3 lakh

2014 Elections

Mahesh Sharma (BJP) 599702

Narendra Bhati (SP) 319490

Satish Kumar (BSP) 198237

GHAZIABAD 

Virendra Kumar Singh (BJP)

Dolly Sharma (Congress)

Suresh  Bansal (Alliance/SP)

BJP sitting MP VK Singh had won this seat in 2014 with a record margin of over 5 .5 lakh votes defeating Congress’ Raj Babbar. But this time, the Congress has given the ticket to young Dolly Sharma who was also the runner up in the election of Mayor of Ghaziabad. Congress State President Babbar this time has moved to Fatehpur Sikri. The alliance in Ghaziabad has given the ticket to former MLA  Suresh Bansal who is likely to cut the Vaishya votes which is considered as a strong vote bank of BJP. Ghaziabad seat is having a good percentage of upper caste votes, mainly Brahmins and Vaishyas. For Singh, things are not so easy as in the 2014 election. Congress too had put on its strength on this seat. Priyanka Gandhi conducted a roadshow here in which a massive crowd had turned up overwhelming the Congress.

2014 Elections

VK Singh (BJP) 758482

Raj Babbar (INC) 191222

Mukul (BSP) 173085

Sudhan Kumar (SP) 106984