An early end to the ongoing stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops at Doklam appears unlikely with many in the Indian establishment acknowledging that the stalemate could continue even until the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in October-November.

‘’It seems our troops are in for a long haul at Doklam,’’ a source here said while pointing out that withdrawal by either side in the current situation would obviously amount to loss of face for it.

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At the same time, however, there is a sense of optimism that the temperature between the two countries could come down following National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval’s visit to Beijing for the BRICS NSAs meet. Doval, who is India’s Special Representative (SR) for the border talks with China, is also expected to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also scheduled to visit China for the BRICS Summit to be held in the eastern port city of Xiamen in September. Modi had established a strong rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the numerous meetings the two had over the past three years but the Doklam face-off seems to have affected their personal relationship too. This was quite visible from their body language at Hamburg as they shook hands on the margins of the G-20 Summit earlier this month.

The source said Xi was not expected to take any major decision, particularly on the border stand-off, until he has secured the CPC approval for a second five-year term at the helm. The CPC, which is attended by top Communist leaders from across the country, is considered the most important forum in China which takes a call on all major domestic and international issues.

Xi might even intentionally want the face-off to continue until the 19th Congress so that he could use the situation on the border to his advantage, given the fact that there has been a sharp increase in the number of his detractors, particularly among the old guard, in the party in the last five years. However, the ‘youth brigade’ seems to be solidly backing him and is likely to ensure smooth sailing for him.

‘’The chances are that once he has secured the CPC approval for a second term, President Xi will move in the direction of normalising the situation with India in right earnest,’’ the source added.

In fact, all the rhetoric in the official Chinese media against India since the border face-off began is also apparently aimed at strengthening the hands of President Xi and ensuring that the CPC rallies behind him.