The State Bank of India (SBI) has forecast GDP growth for Q3 FY25 at 6.2-6.3 per cent. ”Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 and Q2, estimates, we are expecting FY25 GDP at 6.3 per cent”, SBI said in its research report.
The NSO may revise Q1 and Q2 estimates in its 28 February 2025 release of the 2nd Revised estimate of FY25 GDP.
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The SBI report said that the leading indicators show strong upward movement across all domains including consumer economy, investment demand, industry, and services – signaling robust momentum.
The GDP Growth as per SBI composite leading indicator (CLI) Index (a basket of 36 leading indicators which includes parameters from almost all the sectors) based on monthly data shows a slight uptick in economic activity in Q3. This increase in economic activity in Q3FY25 indicates GDP may grow in the range of 6.2-6.3 per cent.
SBI tracks 36 leading indicators in consumption and demand, Agri, Industry, service and other indicators, which indicate a spike in Q3FY25 growth. The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 74 per cent in Q3FY25 vs 71 per cent in Q2FY25.
The report highlighted that the slowdown in current household inflation expectations encourages higher discretionary spending and drives demand-led growth.
Moderation in declining consumer confidence suggests that households are now optimistic about global developments, disinflation process, and economic prospects – enabling long-term sustainable growth, it said.
The report further said around 4000 Corporate firms in listed space reported revenue growth of 6.2 per cent while EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and profit after tax (PAT) grew by around 11 per cent and 12 per cent respectively in Q3FY25 as compared to Q3FY24.
