With a healthy tax collection till date, the Indian government’s gross tax revenue is expected to surpass the full-year budgeted target, CARE Ratings Ltd said.

“The centre’s gross tax collections have shown healthy growth so far and are expected to surpass the full-year budgeted target despite the custom and excise duty cuts,” the ratings agency’s Chief Economist Rajani Sinha said.

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While the scenario is optimistic on the tax collections front, the non-tax revenue could see some shortfall primarily due to lower dividend transfers from the RBI in the current fiscal, she added.

Overall, the net revenue receipts are expected to exceed the budget target by Rs 2.2 lakh crore, she said.

The government on Monday said it has received Rs 12,03,748 crore (52.7 per cent of the corresponding budget estimate – BE 2022-23 of Total Receipts) up to September 2022, comprising Rs 10,11,961 crore tax revenue (net to centre), Rs 1,57,600 crore of non-tax revenue, and Rs 34,187 crore of non-debt capital receipts.

Non-debt capital receipts consists of recovery of loans of Rs 9,597 crore and miscellaneous capital receipts of Rs 24,590 crore.

The government said Rs 376,106 crore has been transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the Centre, up to this period which is Rs 115,960 crore higher than the previous year.

Total expenditure incurred by the Centre is Rs 18,23,597 crore (46.2 per cent of corresponding BE 2022-23), out of which Rs 14,80,708 crore is on the revenue account and Rs 342,889 crore is on the capital account.

Out of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 436,682 crore is on account of interest payments, and Rs 198,879 crore is on account of major subsidies, the central government said.

“So far in the current fiscal, the government’s expenditure policy has been centred on asset creation and revenue rationalisation,” Sinha said.

According to her, higher food and fertilizer subsidies will incur an additional outgo of Rs 3 lakh crore and add to the fiscal pressure.

“Factoring the possibility of additional expenditure being partially offset by higher revenue realisations and no shortfall in the disinvestment proceeds, we expect the fiscal deficit to be marginally higher at 6.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in FY23,” Sinha said.