It seems Trinamul Congress supremo Miss Mamata Banerjee is a little scared about a possible split in minority vote banks ahead of the crucial seventh and eighth phase of the ongoing Assembly elections in which minority voters might be an important factor for the ruling party. Apart from Jangipur and Samserganj seats, elections in the last two out of eight phases will be held in 69 Assemblies in Kolkata, Murshidabad, Malda,South Dinajpur, West Burdwan and Birbhum districts on 26 and 29 April respectively.

Polls in Jangipur and Samserganj have been deferred following deaths of two contesting candidates in the two assemblies. Elections in 223 assembly segments have been completed so far after sixth phase held on 22 April.

Virtually expressing her fears, Miss Banerjee while addressing in an election rally appealed electorates not to allow the person who is visiting Bengal from Hyderabad as he has received money from BJP to contest polls in the state.

She was hinting at the at All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi. She also slammed Abbas Siddique, the cleric of Furfura Sharif, who formed the Indian Secular Front (ISF) and joined hands with Congress and the Left Front to contest the election.

The Trinamul Congress camp feels that women voters belonging to the minority community mostly in the Muslim-dominated Assemblies in Murshidabad, Malda, South Dinajpur and in several parts of Kolkata will vote the party this time also what they are traditionally doing since 2011 to bring Mamata Banerjee government to power again for third time.

Around 3.5 crores out of 7.5 crores voters are women in Bengal. With more than 77 per cent Muslim vote banks Samserganj Assembly has 231 polling booths where women voters have a considerable strength of 50 per cent vote share.

Domkol constituency in Murshidabad has a record of highest number of 88 per cent Muslim vote banks. There are about 50 per cent women voters in the constituency that has 280 booths. Many other minority-dominated Assemblies like Raninagar, Hariharpara, Sagardighi, Farakka, Mothabari, Hansan, Nalhati etc with more than 65 per cent Muslim votes each have around 50 per cent women electorates in most booths.

In the minority-dominated districts of Murshidabad and Malda in North Bengal, the Congress too is a major contender for Muslim votes. Around 120 out of 294 Assembly seats in the state where the Muslim vote bank is decisive in determining the electoral outcome.

“Muslim women voters in these seats will again vote for us this time because they believe over government is the real protector at their time of need,” a senior Trinamul Congress leader felt. In the 2011 assembly election, the Congress-Trinamul alliance won 91 of these seats. In 2016, the Congress allied with the Left, and Trinamool alone won 85 of these seats.

Bengali Muslims form the majority of the population in three districts: Malda, Murshidabad and Uttar Dinajpur. However, Muslim votes make up approximately 30 per cent of the total vote share of the state and it is believed that the consolidation of these minority votes in favour of a political party will make it easier for them to come to power.

For almost three-and-a-half decades, the Muslims were wooed and considered a vote bank by the Left Front, which ruled the state for 34 years running. The shift of loyalty was prominently strongly evident in Lok Sabha polls in 2014 when the Trinamul Congress bagged 34 out of the 42 seats in the states with more than 40 per cent of the Muslim exercised their franchise in favour of the ruling party in the state.

In 2016, when the CPI-Mled Left and the Congress were in a formal alliance in West Bengal, their collective share of the Muslim vote fell to 38 per cent, and the Trinamool’s increased to 51 per cent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this share of the Muslim vote for the Trinamool grew further to 70 per cent.

The Left and the Congress secured 10 per cent and 12 per cent of the Muslim vote respectively. The BJP had an overall vote-share of 17 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the state, but that shot up to more than 40 per cent in 2019, owing largely to the party securing 57 per cent of the vote among Hindus.