Tomorrow, six legislative Assembly constituencies in West Bengal are set for by-elections, with the ruling Trinamul Congress (TMC) facing off against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Despite BJP’s declared intent to fight intensely, the campaign has lacked the impact many anticipated. Notably, former BJP national president and Union home minister Amit Shah, who recently visited West Bengal, made no mention of the upcoming by-elections, disappointing some of the BJP candidates. The announcement for these elections came at a challenging time for TMC, following public outcry over the recent rape and murder of PGT intern at Kolkata’s R G Kar Medical College and Hospital.

The BJP has attempted to leverage anti-incumbency sentiment against the TMC government, yet challenges remain in effectively mobilising voter dissatisfaction across the state. The six constituencies going to polls include Madarihat in Alipurduar district, Sitai in Cooch Behar, Naihati and Haroa in North 24-Parganas, Taldangra in Bankura, and Midnapur in Paschim Midnapur. In the 2021 Assembly election, TMC won five of these seats, with the exception of Madarihat, which went to the BJP. The by-elections were triggered by the resignations of MLAs following their victories in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. The vote count is scheduled for 22 November, aligning with the timing of results for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections.

The BJP’s confidence has been highest in Madarihat, traditionally a stronghold. BJP MLA Manoj Tigga, who is leading the campaign, remains optimistic, stating, “If the vote is conducted fairly, we’ll win by an even larger margin.” However, internally, some BJP leaders express concern about securing Madarihat, a seat they won twice previously and where they led by over 11,000 votes in the recent Lok Sabha results.

Other constituencies look less secured for the BJP. In Taldangra, there is some hope of a “strong fight,” as Bankura district includes one BJP-held Lok Sabha seat. Former Union minister Subhas Sarkar has been actively campaigning in Taldangra, despite losing in his own constituency by a substantial margin. Additionally, former MP Locket Chatterjee, along with two other BJP MLAs have come out in support of party candidate Ananya Ray Chatterjee.

In other seats like Midnapore, once represented by BJP leader Dilip Ghosh in the Lok Sabha, the BJP hopes to stage a good fight, despite TMC’s 2,170-vote edge there in recent election. Meanwhile, the BJP is significantly behind in Sitai, Naihati, and Haroa, with large TMC majorities in previous elections. The BJP’s primary goal across the six constituencies is to secure a strong second place, maintaining its status as the principal opposition in the state even if the TMC wins all six seats. Leaders like Suvendu Adhikari, BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar and Dilip Ghosh have all campaigned across these constituencies, emphasising BJP’s aim to reinforce its position as the main opposition in West Bengal.