Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri visited Beijing last week marking another step towards restoring normalcy between the two nations. This followed interactions between the foreign ministers and the NSAs, post the resolution of standoffs along the LAC and restoration of patrolling rights. No joint statement was issued following the visit. The Indian MEA readout mentioned that the two nations agreed to recommence the Mansarovar Yatra, resume provision of hydrological data and ‘other cooperation pertaining to trans-border rivers.’

It also added acceptance of promoting media and think-tank interactions while ‘agreeing in principle’ to resume direct air services. The Global Times quoted Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister as saying “The improvement and development of China-India relations is fully in line with the fundamental interests of the two countries and their peoples.” It quoted Wang Yi as saying that the two sides should, “commit themselves to mutual understanding, mutual support and mutual achievement, rather than mutual suspicion, alienation and mutual depletion.”

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In reality mutual suspicion continues to guide relations. There were differences in readouts too. The Indian side mentioned raising existing Chinese trade barriers impacting Indian exports, which was missing in the Chinese statement. India is also concerned by the growing trade imbalance. Similarly, the Chinese statement mentioned Indian support to the Chinese presidency of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) as also its participation in all its meetings.

This was missing in the Indian official release. While diplomatically and economically the two nations appear to be moving ahead, militarily, they are not. As far as the LAC is concerned, the reality is vastly different. The relationship basically plummeted because of Chinese military actions along the LAC. India rightly continues being suspicious of Chinese intent. The army chief, General Upendra Dwivedi, in his pre-Army Day press interaction had mentioned that a ‘degree’ of standoff still persists between the two nations as also the situation is ‘sensitive but stable’ and that the army deployment is ‘balanced but robust.’

Evidently, the Indian Army is taking no chances as it remains suspicious of Chinese intent. Simultaneously, inputs suggest that there is no let up in China enhancing its infrastructure along the LAC. A report mentions, “Significant activities are noted in regions such as Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh, where China aims to counter India’s tactical advantages by improving access and visibility over Indian positions. The PLA has been upgrading dirt tracks and constructing new roads to facilitate troop movement and enhance logistical support.” China had suffered a setback in Yangtze in December 2022, when it attempted to intrude. In all probability this region will be the next flashpoint almost on the lines of Galwan. Hence, Indian interest here remains high. India is not being left behind as it also continues enhancing its infrastructure.

While there are no visible adverse currents at present, the possibility of friction is high as also traditional flashpoints continue to be closely monitored. India is unwilling to reduce its troop levels as it does not possess the confidence that ties between the two states are normal. Such a scenario does not promote peace and tranquility but conveys a calm before a storm. Every standoff or incident along the LAC has been triggered by the Chinese. They have chosen the time, place and duration of standoffs as also levels of violence. India has been compelled to react as also counter these, avoiding expanding the confrontation, and seeking a resolution based on talks with firmness.

The Chinese have come to the negotiating table faster whenever India has responded by similar intrusions; Pangong Tso heights and occupation of Rezang La/ Rechin La features, all overlooking Chinese deployments, are recent examples. Both sides are aware that neither can risk a major conflict. Hence, border skirmishes, with limited physical violence, will remain the order of the day. The days of holding placards, and defining one’s own territory, are over. China will continue seeking to occupy un-held territory which would provide it with an advantage. While it will keep the LAC alive, its primary interest remains Taiwan and disputes over islands with Japan and the Philippines. In these disputes, the US is likely to be involved while India will be indirectly as it has signed multiple agreements with the US. Further, with Donald Trump in the White House, weaponization of trade would impact both nations.

Both may face additional tariffs. While Trump may be interested in talks with China to ease tensions, his major advisors are profoundly anti-China. QUAD, known to be aimed at countering China, received a major boost, being the first engagement of the new administration. The Indian economy is growing steadily at 7 per cent while the Chinese is stagnating. There are reports of slowdowns in multiple sectors including infrastructure. India needs Chinese products, technology and investments to grow, while China needs the Indian market to offset restrictions it faces in Europe and the US. In today’s context, both nations need each other.

However this does not imply that relations would normalize and tensions recede. While China has repeatedly been mentioning that border skirmishes be kept aside while trade and diplomatic ties grow, India has been insisting that peace and tranquility at the LAC is paramount to normalization of ties. Hence, while India is moving slowly, linking diplomatic engagements to normalization along the LAC, China wants the relationship to move forward setting aside tensions along the LAC. India perceives Chinese developments along the LAC as an indicator that the current détente is temporary.

Hence, it is unwilling to pull back additional deployments. This distrust will continue to guide military relations between the two states. India would desire that the LAC be marked on a similar line as the LoC with Pakistan. China is unwilling, as it would reduce its leverage over India. With the passage of time, levels of deterrence increase, limiting options of an all-out offensive.

However, localized actions will continue to be largely led by China. If India is to level the playing field, then it too should respond to Chinese intrusions in a similar manner, possibly even in sectors which are dormant. Unless we convey to the Chinese that we have understood their game plan and are willing to up the ante, they will keep compelling us to react. It is time to force the Chinese to complain of Indian intrusions rather than the reverse. (The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)