On his first day in office, Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders, 26 in total, covering a vast variety of subjects. The pace in issue of executive orders as also in sacking of previously appointed individuals reminiscent of his first term continues. He has stopped all aid, except to Israel and Turkey. He appears to have preconceived plans on what he intends to achieve. Trump is also sending a global message that much will change. His threat of fresh tariffs of up to 25 per cent on Canada and Mexico from 1 February ended Justin Trudeau’s tenure as PM of Canada, an indicator of what others whom he dislikes will face.

There was also a warning of 100 per cent tariffs on Brics nations in case they refuse to accept the US dollar as the global currency, which India has anyway rejected. While he spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping a few days before his swearing in and indicated his intent to visit China to also improve ties, his nominated team is profoundly antiChina. Trump’s team believes that the Chinese threat is paramount and must be countered. Hence, the first meeting conducted by his administration was of the Quad foreign ministers. It was sending a message to China. The joint statement mentioned that the four nations support a “shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.” It added, “We also strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion.” The target is China.

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Trump had invited Xi Jinping to his swearing in, but Beijing was represented by its Vice President Han Zheng. If despite this, Trump slams additional sanctions on China, it would be a setback. China got a facesaver with Tik Tok receiving an extension under conditions. Trump’s threat of employing tariffs as a weapon and his intention of pushing his own agenda, ignoring his allies, could alter global dynamics. Withdrawing the US from the WHO as also the Paris accord for the second time sends a message that he will not accept what he believes is unfair to the US.

Simultaneously, these bodies become financially weak without US support. His intent to make the US the world’s largest producer of oil and also reduce oil prices signals a setback to electric cars and climate change actions. He assumes that if he fulfils his poll promises, he would gain popularity within the US, something which would give his ego a boost. Hence, amongst his first set of directives was strengthening borders and deporting illegal immigrants, a major poll promise. This has already begun. India has displayed its willingness to work with the US administration on this and accept those whom the US government identifies as illegal immigrants. As per US officials, there are approximately 18,000 identified Indian illegal immigrants.

Trump has already changed the name of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America, solely for his domestic audience. Mexico would never accept the new term. It is the same as using the term Indo-Pacific for the Indian Ocean Region. While India, the US and its allies do so, China and Pakistan continue terming it as the Asia-Pacific. He also reinstated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing a recent Biden decision. Whether he would fulfil his promise to annex the Panama Canal or move towards purchasing Greenland is to be seen. An acrimonious conversation on Greenland has already taken place between Trump and the PM of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen. Employing military power in either case would be globally questioned. There is even disquiet within the US on Trump’s actions.

Democratic party-led states as also human rights groups have joined hands to file lawsuits challenging Trump’s executive order which rolls back birthright citizenship in the US. They believe it goes against the 14th amendment which mentions that people born in the US and subject to its jurisdiction are citizens. Trump has already conveyed his intent to work towards terminating the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He is willing to exploit his favourite card, sanctions. Trump is a known fan of Putin and would meet him at the first opportunity. The resolution of Ukraine would never be on Zelenskky’s terms but largely on Moscow’s. This may imply going against the views of the European Union and Nato. Ukraine will not be offered Nato membership during Trump’s tenure.

US aid to Ukraine has already been stalled. Nato may hereafter witness lesser US involvement, unless its members enhance defence spending. Simultaneously, Trump has no intention of engaging militarily with China. He believes it can be contained by negotiation and tariffs. Trump’s major policy makers, Marc Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, would prefer US ending conflicts in Europe and concentrating on challenging China in Asia. Hence the emphasis will remain on the Quad. In 2017, Trump was not prepared. He took time to make his appointments and also made multiple errors in selecting the right staff, changing them as days went by. In his first 24 months as President, he had a record three White House chiefs of staff. This time, he appears clear and focused on his intent. His major advisors have been nominated and his plan on what is to be done made clear.

His inaugural speech indicated that he is a President in a hurry to push through a pre-decided agenda. Trump is a natural when it comes to having people guessing on what he would do next. Allies and foes remain confused about his intent. Netanyahu was compelled by Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to accept the ceasefire. While the US would arm Israel, whether it would permit it to re-commence operations is to be seen. This is Trump’s final tenure. He will work towards leaving a legacy which few future presidents can hope to match. His target would also be global recognition. His showmanship and intent to resolve global issues as also compel others to share the burden of global security will cause discontent amongst his allies. Trump has displayed from the start that he does not regard allies and challengers as different and would treat them as one. The world will have to deal with an unpredictable Trump.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)