Former captain Ricky Ponting predicted a 3-1 victory for Australia in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against India as he feels the visitors will find taking 20 wickets in a Test as the “biggest challenge” in the absence of Mohammed Shami.

Australia is keen on ending its barren run in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, with India winning each of the four series since 2014-15, including the historic triumphs Down Under in 2018-19 and 2020-21.

However, with India suffering a historic low of a first-ever whitewash against New Zealand at home, Ponting believes the reigning World Test champions have a better chance of defeating India now.

“Probably more so now (than before). (Mohammed) Shami just leaves such a big hole in that bowling group. Back then (in August) there was still some conjecture whether Shami would be fit or not,” Ponting said about Australia’s chances against India.

“I think taking 20 wickets in a Test match for India is going to be the biggest challenge. I think they’ll bat well enough out here with the current group of batters that they’ve got,” the legendary batter was quoted as saying by the ICC Review.

Although the Aussie legend admitted that India might sneak in a win at some point in the five-match Test series, Ponting stuck by his overall series prediction.

“I think India will win a Test match somewhere through the five Test matches. But I still think now, Australia probably look a bit more settled, a bit more experienced and we know that they’re a very hard team to beat at home. So I’ll stick with the 3-1,” Ponting predicted.

Moving on to the players we could see in the upcoming series in Australia, Ponting was uncertain about who the top-scorer could be, identifying two potential candidates for the top of the list.

“Leading run scorer, I’m going to go – Steve Smith or Rishabh Pant,” Ponting said.

He felt that the likely move of Steve Smith back to his customary No.4 increases his chances of doing well in the Test series. Smith’s brief stint as opener in Tests hadn’t been quite successful and ahead of the series against India, it was all but confirmed that the Aussie lynchpin would return to his original spot in the order.

“I think Smith, the fact that he’s moved back down from opener to No.4 probably makes it feel like he’s got more of a point to prove…that maybe he shouldn’t have gone up to open in the first place and that No.4 is his spot and where he should have probably been the whole time and where he probably finished his career now,” Ponting stated, while also not neglecting the possibility of Pant pushing Smith at the top of that list.

“And with Rishabh back in the side and probably coming into bat in the middle order when the ball’s probably lost a bit of its shine and a bit of its hardness and the form that he’s in, I’ll go for him as one of the leading run scorers as well.”

Among the bowlers, Ponting backed experienced seamer Josh Hazlewood to top the wickets chart. While Ponting mentions all three players in Australia’s strong pace attack, he felt that neither Mitchell Starc nor Pat Cummins might play all five Tests, unlike Hazlewood.

“I think Hazlewood, out of the Australian quicks, is right at the moment, is probably at the peak of his powers more than the other guys. So I’ll go with him as the leading wicket-taker,” Ponting said.

The first Test between India and Australia begins on November 22. The crucial ICC World Test Championship series is set to be decisive in identifying the potential finalists of the WTC cycle with Australia and India currently at the top of the table.