India’s energy security has always been a strategic priority, given its dependence on oil imports to meet over 85 per cent of its consumption. In the current scenario, with escalating tensions in West Asia, the country’s ability to manage potential disruptions in oil supply is being tested once again. However, India seems well-prepared to navigate the uncertainties, as reassured by the union petroleum minister. West Asia has historically been a crucial region for global oil supplies, and any conflict in this area tends to trigger fluctuations in prices.

Recent developments have already caused oil prices to rise, nearing $80 a barrel. Despite this, petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri has conveyed confidence that the country can secure its energy needs, even in the face of potential supply hits from the region. His confidence stems from a combination of strategic planning, market dynamics, and evolving energy policies that are gradually reducing India’s vulnerability to such geopolitical risks. One of the key points highlighted is that the global oil market is currently awash with supplies. There is more oil available than consumed, meaning that even if certain traditional suppliers from West Asia reduce exports due to regional conflicts, India has options to source oil from other countries. This diversification of supply sources is a critical factor in India’s resilience.

Over the years, India has actively pursued relationships with new oil suppliers, including those in the Americas and Africa. This strategy of diversifying import partners has been instrumental in reducing India’s over-reliance on any single region. Moreover, the global oil supply is governed by OPEC+, a group that includes major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. While OPEC+ has been cutting production in recent years to stabilise prices amid weaker demand, the group is scheduled to raise production from December. This expected increase in output should further ease concerns of any immediate shortages. India’s proactive stance on building oil reserves has also enhanced its ability to manage short-term supply disruptions.

With sufficient oil reserves to tide over temporary supply constraints, India is better equipped than before to handle shocks in the oil market. However, while the current outlook remains cautiously optimistic, there is no denying that any prolonged conflict in West Asia will continue to impact global oil prices. Rising prices could hurt India economically, as higher import costs would increase inflationary pressures and widen the fiscal deficit. To counter these risks in the long term, India must continue to prioritise the diversification of its energy mix, particularly by expanding its renewable energy sector. Reducing dependence on imported oil is a strategic imperative that aligns with global trends toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources.

India’s position as the world’s third-largest oil consumer underscores the importance of energy security in maintaining economic stability. By continuing to invest in alternative energy sources and bolstering strategic oil reserves, India can ensure greater resilience against future geopolitical disruptions in the oil market.