India, a dynamic and proactive player in the Asia-Pacific, is on the cusp of broadening its influence through strategic partnerships and defence cooperation. Guided by the Modi administration from 2014, India has made significant strides in increasing its regional presence, bolstering its influence and rapport with AsiaPacific nations while actively countering Beijing’s regional sway. In the coming decade, China will continue to pose as India’s primary defence and security challenge.

However, India is projected to persist in forging a coalition of regional powers to counterbalance China’s assertive policies. India’s strategic stance from 2014-2024 and beyond clearly signals its intent to assert its influence, foster regional coalitions, and counterbalance China’s burgeoning power in the Asia-Pacific region. In the foreseeable future, India’s primary focus will remain on the Indian Ocean region, with the broader Asia-Pacific region taking a backseat despite its mounting importance. In response to China’s escalating assertiveness, India is not standing alone. Many Asia-Pacific and European nations are aligning with India, recognising the strategic significance of balancing China’s influence. This notable trend hints at the potential for a strong regional coalition, a testament to the robustness of India’s alliances.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, India’s ‘middle power’ status has witnessed a significant upswing, bolstering its capacity to influence regional geopolitics. While India’s military, diplomatic, and economic capabilities are lower than China’s, it remains a significant power capable of asymmetrically defending its interests and complicating China’s strategic calculations. India’s security focus has shifted from Pakistan and Afghanistan to China as its primary long-term strategic challenge. India aspires to be a ‘preferred security partner’ for AsiaPacific nations, a role that carries substantial strategic weight.

This shift has prompted India to fortify its defence partnerships across the Asia-Pacific to counter China’s mounting regional influence. The deterioration in India-China relations coincided with escalating tensions between China, the United States, and its regional allies. Consequently, India has engaged with the US, Quad (Australia and Japan) members, and other partners in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia to bolster its regional strategy. This strategic manoeuvre underscores India’s commitment to maintaining a balanced and secure Asia-Pacific region. Being a preferred security partner through defence partnerships enhances India’s regional presence, influence, and trust. This role allows India to cooperate fully with partners on sensitive issues and encourages regular engagement.

India’s defencediplomatic efforts include ministerial and service-chief visits, multilateral engagements, arms exports, and military exercises. Additionally, India favours trilateral and plurilateral engagements, enabling it to collaborate with multiple partners simultaneously without overextending its limited diplomatic and military resources. India actively participated in 150 military exercises during 2014-24 with countries interested in defence partnerships in the Asia-Pacific.India delivered 2024 BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a deal signed in 2022. India has also activated a satellite imaging and tracking station in Hanoi, enabling it to track Chinese naval activities in the region.

India is now more engaged with China’s neighbours on regional defence and security to counter Beijing’s influence. Due to the widened trust deficit between New Delhi and Beijing, India also engages more with Southeast Asian countries. India has increased defence cooperation with ASEAN, highlighted by the first ASEAN-India Defence Ministers’ Informal Meeting in November 2022 and the inaugural maritime exercise in the South China Sea in May 2023. India supports Southeast Asian territorial claims in the South China Sea to counter China’s regional influence and protect its navigation freedoms, as over 55 per cent of India’s trade passes through this region. New Delhi has enhanced sensitive defence engagements, including submarine visits and trilateral exercises with regional partners like Australia and Indonesia. India faces challenges in breaking into the regional arms market and enhancing its military presence in Southeast Asia, given its primary focus on the Indian Ocean.

India aims to hold regular defence ministerial meetings with ASEAN, increase bilateral exercises with regional countries, and make Southeast Asia a key market for its defence exports to boost trust and regional influence. Combined military exercises are essential for India’s defence strategy. They facilitate military cooperation, interoperability, and mutual understanding with partner nations. India employs these exercises to signal an inclusive approach to military cooperation and to establish itself as a preferred security partner in the region. Through these exercises, the Indian armed forces can enhance their skills, share best practices, and improve their overall proficiency and agility. Combined military exercises may serve as a precursor to potential Indian military exports. These exercises also act as a litmus test for China’s tolerance of India’s military engagements with regional countries, indicating whether China perceives such activities as crossing ‘red lines.’ India conducts a wide range of bilateral, trilateral, multilateral, and multilateral military exercises, with an increasing number year-on-year, reflecting its growing regional presence and the development of new exercise formats.

India’s military exercises span various countries in the Asia-Pacific, demonstrating its strategic focus and intent to strengthen ties with key regional defence partners. The Indian Navy’s increased port calls complement the military exercises, displaying India’s maritime presence and strategic reach. India is more willing to engage in sensitive defence activities, such as submarine visits to countries like Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore. India has increased joint patrols and cooperation with countries like Australia and France to counter China’s growing influence, focusing on maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare. India’s naval activities aim to enhance Maritime Domain Awareness, addressing traditional and non-traditional security challenges in a way that does not overtly challenge China. Coordinated patrols with regional navies aim to prevent and suppress unlawful activities like illegal fishing, drug trafficking, maritime terrorism, armed robbery, and piracy. India strategically uses combined military exercises to enhance regional defence cooperation, improve military capabilities, and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning China.

India perceives China as its main strategic challenge, with this gap widening compared to secondary concerns like terrorism and Pakistan. India aims to enhance its regional presence and influence through defence partnerships, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, to counter China’s influence. Ministerial and service-chief visits are highlighted as effective defence-diplomacy tools, but practical defence cooperation requires more than just these visits. India optimises its limited resources by focusing on trilateral and multilateral platforms, combined military exercises, and maritime security challenges, especially in Southeast Asia. These exercises and port calls are central to India’s strategy to establish itself as a preferred regional security partner.

Improved delivery of defence initiatives could be achieved through more joint patrols and regional divisions of labour with partners. More robust economic ties with partners interested in India’s markets could enhance defence cooperation and set better terms of engagement. India’s role as an alternative defence partner to the US and China is expected to grow, with increased sensitivity to changes in deterrence, defence, containment, and engagement strategies. The relationship between India and China will likely remain antagonistic due to a lack of trust and engagement. India’s growing defence role and partnerships with countries like Australia, Japan, and the US indicate a regional divide with China. This is exacerbated by worsening US-China tensions. India is concerned about China’s defence engagement with neighbouring countries and seeks to be the primary security partner in the Indian Ocean region to counter this. India aims to prevent China from establishing a regular presence with its neighbours by becoming the preferred regional security partner.

(The writer is an economic consultant)