With Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha seats going to polls on Friday, reports from across the state indicate that the Congress-led UDF has an upper hand in most of the constituencies.

Unlike the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, neither the Rahul Gandhi factor nor the issue of entry of women to the Lord Ayyappa temple in Sabarimala seems to be making any significant impact on voters. However, there is a discernible anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate towards the LDF government under Pinarayi Vijayan, which is giving the UDF an advantageous position this time.

The LDF government has been facing the wrath of the people due to its failure to timely disburse social security pensions, delays in government employees’ salaries, and outstanding DA instalments owed to them. Additionally, subsidised grocery items are not being distributed properly through the supply company outlets.

The death of JS Sidharthan, a second-year veterinary student at the Kerala Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Pookode campus in Wayanad,  inside the hostel after a brutal ragging and assault allegedly by the SFI leaders on February 18 has sparked outrage. Additionally, incidents such as the Panoor bomb blast, the Karuvannur cooperative bank scam, corruption allegations against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, including the Life Mission housing project kickback case and the monthly pay-off case involving the Chief Minister’s daughter Veena Vijayan, have significantly tarnished the image of the LDF government.

Furthermore, the temporary disruption of the Pooram festival due to stringent rules imposed by the police also went against the LDF.

Knowing well that the LDF government is facing massive anti-incumbency, the front leaders tried to overcome it by raising the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) issue. The CAA notification has come as a blessing in disguise for the ruling CPI-M, which has been grappling with massive anti-incumbency sentiment. With an eye on the minority votes, the LDF had been harping on the CAA and atrocities against Christians in Manipur and north Indian states in their poll campaign meetings. However, it remains to be seen whether the CAA issue can overcome the people’s ire against the government.

While the main contenders in the state continue to be the traditional political formations, namely the CPI-M-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the BJP-led NDA has managed to give a tough fight to both fronts in several constituencies this time.

BJP candidates — Union Minister Rajiv Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram, Shobha Surendran in Alappuzha, Anil Antony in Pathanamthitta, Suresh Gopi in Thrissur and Union Minister V Muraleedharan in Attingal — are giving tough fights to their LDF and UDF rivals.

The UDF might not be able to win all 19 of the total 20 seats it got in 2019. However, according to political analysts, the front may win around 16 seats this time. Rahul Gandhi is predicted to win Wayanad with a reduced margin this time. Last time, he won the seat with a massive majority of over four lakh votes.

In Ernakulam, Hybi Eaden of the Congress is believed to be in a comfortable position and so is UDF’s RSP nominee N K Premachandran in Kollam.

The Alappuzha constituency is in the national spotlight as Congress general secretary KC Venugopal is contesting from here. He is pitted against sitting MP AM Arif, who won the seat in 2019 by a slender margin of 10,474 votes, and senior BJP leader Shobha Surendran, who has a track record of lifting the BJP vote percentage wherever she contested, albeit losing the elections.

In Vadakara, where former minister K K Shailaja of CPI-M is taking on Shafi Parambil of the UDF, the poll outcome is unpredictable.

In Thrissur, the BJP has fielded actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi, who is facing Congress’ K Muraleedharan, and CPI’s V S Sunilkumar. In Thiruvananthapuram, sitting Congress MP Shashi Tharoor is pitted against  BJP’s Union Minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar. CPI’s Pannyan Raveendran is making it a three-cornered contest.

The BJP, which has never won any Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, is intensifying its efforts to break its electoral dry spell in Kerala. The BJP expects that the party can win two or three Lok Sabha seats in Kerala this time. BJP candidates have successfully transformed the contests in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Attingal, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta and Palakkad into three-cornered fights.

The BJP’s major expectation rests on Thiruvananthapuram. In Thiruvananthapuram, sitting Congress MP Sashi Tharoor is facing a stiff challenge from BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar. Tharoor is facing anti-incumbency, as he hasn’t delivered much as an MP in 15 years. It has been reported that Rajeev Chandrasekhar has succeeded in conducting the poll campaign in a  professional manner, as is being done by Tharoor.