Right now, Sir Keir Starmer is a highly significant individual. He’s the leader of the opposition in the UK. He’s the leader of the country’s Labour Party. And importantly, he has a very high likelihood of becoming Britain’s prime minister in less than a year. Yes, Starmer’s Labour has been consistently leading the polls as the next UK general election is looming, which most observers believe will be held late this year.

The Guardian reports that the Labour Party is ahead of the Rishi Sunak-led Conservatives by roughly 20 points at the end of the third week of February, a staggering difference that is based on data from all major British polling agencies. Actually, Starmer is like a man on a rebuilding mission. He is there to rebuild a lot of things. He outlined his plans to rebuild the UK at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool in October 2023. The UK has been ruled by Conservatives since 2010 under five prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.

In a country that has experienced a great deal recently, including Brexit and its fallout, the Covid pandemic, a recession, persistently high inflation, declining living standards, and the disastrous premierships of Johnson and Truss in particular, Starmer pledged to lead “a decade of national renewal.” How does Starmer envision rebuilding the UK? The most crucial question in the context of a country that is shattered by the tremor of Brexit is whether or not it would rejoin the European Union under his leadership. At a conference of centre-left leaders in Canada in September, Starmer stated, “Actually we don’t want to diverge, we don’t want to lower standards, we don’t want to rip up environmental standards, working standards for people at work, food standards and all the rest of it.”

After the Tory administration accused him of trying to undo Brexit, he has reiterated that there is no case for rejoining the EU. New transport links, new homes, new towns, new green-energy projects, and a modernised, more efficient National Health Service were promised by Starmer as the vision of his Labour government. Starmer sounds like someone ready to seize power following a national disaster or war. “I have to warn you: our way back from this will be hard,” he said. “But know this – what is broken can be repaired. What is ruined can be rebuilt.” Well, what else is ruined or broken that Starmer aims to fix? 2019 saw the worst performance for Labour since 1935 in the general elections, as the party lost numerous parliamentary seats in working-class areas that it had dominated for generations.

It caused a seismic change, leading to the resignation of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. And in 2020, Starmer was elected as the leader of the party. Starmer, thus, is set to rebuild the broken Labour Party as well. What sort of Labour leader is Starmer? Like Harry Perkins, is he? Labour backbencher MP Chris Mullin’s 1982 novel A Very British Coup had Perkins as the main character. At the time, Labour was vehemently opposing Mrs. Thatcher’s administration. Harry Perkins was a former Sheffield steelworker who came from a solid Labour background. In the story, Perkins was elected British prime minister in 1991, during a time of intense political unrest.

His top priorities included dissolving media monopolies, pushing for Britain to leave NATO, and pursuing unilateral nuclear disarmament. Perkins was cunning, ruthless, and capable of fighting dirty. He believed in complete accountability. Once, when he was travelling on a train, someone asked him if he would abolish first class. He answered, “No, I’ll abolish second class. I think all people are first class, don’t you?” If Harry Perkins is the model, how does Starmer fit into the mould of a Labour leader? It’s true that despite critics from both sides of the political spectrum frequently mocking Starmer for being a wealthy north London barrister, he has a more working-class background than any Labour leader for a generation. However, he might not share Perkins’ level of leftist views. Actually, the main obstacle Starmer has had to overcome in his quest to rebuild the Labour Party is separating Labour from the “ultra-leftism” that is associated with Corbyn. A columnist for the Financial Times likened Starmer’s success in turning around Labour to Microsoft’s transformation during the Internet era.

Wow! Despite comparisons to Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump’s political ascent, Starmer is not a Macron, for sure. Macron, in fact, started from zero while forming his party. Starmer is also not Trump, who can remain relevant after four years without power. But Starmer has proven to be a skilful, if often ruthless, political operator in the process of turning the Labour Party inside out and putting it on a more centrist footing. Starmer’s increasing prominence has led to more detailed portrayals of him.

In one such recent analysis, John A. Smith’s 2024 book, Keir Starmer: Rebuilding the Labour Legacy, depicts Starmer as embodying drive, tenacity, and a strong dedication to social justice. Starmer, as the party’s leader, faces the daunting challenge of rebuilding a party that is shattered by prolonged Conservative rule and Brexit. And, importantly, several pundits have also considered Starmer the ideal candidate for rebuilding the government’s crucial ties with business. But Startmer may not be a natural politician, as many commentators have explained. While in Oxford in 1986, Starmer became involved in a magazine called Socialist Alternatives, which introduced a small readership to Pabloism, a fringe branch of Trotskyism.

His most important contribution in the most left-wing period of his life was not to the ideological arguments within the sect but rather to publishing the journal. According to a contemporary, “Keir was the backroom guy, the one who did the hard work.” It was the beginning of a career of using bureaucratic procedures to solve human dramas. In a recent piece, The Economist also portrayed Starmer as someone who prioritises his work as a bureaucrat over his political career. This, in fact, is only one of the many paradoxes Tom Baldwin exposed in this incredibly incisive, enlightening, and instructive recent biography, Keir Starmer: The Biography. Baldwin presented Starmer as a reformer who is uncomfortable in the political arena. Well, is Starmer expected to rebuild just that? All things considered, Starmer may become Britain’s prime minister at a crucial juncture when right-wing, or more accurately, ultra-right, ideologies are taking over Europe.

The ultra-right is becoming more powerful, with strong footprints stretching from Sweden in the north to Italy in the south. Among the big economies, centrist and centre-left parties continue to rule France and Germany; yet, ultra-right parties are increasing strength in those countries, too. From this perspective, a Labour government in Britain after a 14-year absence could contribute to preserving socio-political equilibrium in the changing political landscape of Europe.

Also, two significant wars are going on in that region. Following Starmer’s stances on Israel and Ukraine, as well as any changes to the US-UK relationship, will be fascinating, particularly if Donald Trump pulls off a stunning electoral comeback in November. Overall, a lens of socio-political balance in Europe and the rest of the world will make Keir Starmer’s reign both historically significant and exciting. (The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.)