The Narendra Modi-led BJP government has formed an eight-member committee headed by former president Ram Nath Kovind to explore the possibilities of One Nation, One Election. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, senior advocate Harish Salve, former Lok Sabha general secretary Subhash C. Kashyap, former CVC chief Sanjay Kothari, and former finance commission chairman N.K. Singh are the other members of the panel. Senior Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was also named as a member, but he declined to be a part of the committee, terming it “total eyewash.”

While it is a well-known fact that holding simultaneous polls (holding the Lok Sabha, state assemblies, municipalities, and panchayats elections together) will require certain amendments to the Constitution, which the current government is capable of doing, what it wants to establish is whether the consent of states is required at all.

The key task assigned to the committee is to “examine and recommend whether the amendments to the Constitution would require ratification by the States.”

One Nation, One Election is not a new demand, and simultaneous polls have taken place in the past as well. The BJP has long been pushing for simultaneous polls, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken about it publicly on more than one occasion. In fact, simultaneous polls were a norm till 1967.

However, the decision to form a committee a day after calling for a surprise five-day special session of Parliament with its agenda not revealed suggests that the saffron party wants to fast-track the procedure. There are speculations in the power corridors of New Delhi that this may well be the last session of Parliament, and early polls could be announced.

Voting pattern in previous simultaneous polls

According to a 2015 study by an independent think tank IDFC, there is “77% chance that the winning political party or alliance will win both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in that state when held simultaneously”. If the elections are held even six months apart, the figure drops to 61%.”

The study included simultaneous elections of Lok Sabha and state assemblies between 1999 and 2014. In 1999 and 2004, Karnataka assembly elections were held with the Lok Sabha polls. In the 1999 elections in Karnataka, there were 74 per cent constituencies where candidates of the same party won.

However, this number came down to 57 per cent in 2009 and 39 per cent in 2014 when elections were held six months apart. The study shows that if a voter is planning to pick a particular party candidate for state elections and a different party candidate for Centre, he or she would be more tend to vote for the same candidate if polls are held simultaneously.

In Lok Sabha elections, the issues are of national level and a voter is more likely to vote on national issues. However, in assembly elections the same voter will have local issues in mind while voting. For example, if assembly elections are held in Rajasthan, a voter will seek a solution to his drinking water problem, while the same voter will think of national security and other national issues before voting in the Lok Sabha polls. If one nation one election is applied, there are high chances the BJP will get more votes than a regional party.

In 2024, the BJP will seek a third straight term in power. However, the anti-incumbency factor and united Opposition could create hindrance in the saffron party’s ambitions of a hat-trick in Lok Sabha elections. The Opposition INDIA bloc has resolved to fight the Lok Sabha election together “as far as possible”.

However, if One Nation One Election is introduced, Lok Sabha elections will be hold simultaneously with assembly elections and political observers believe their alliance would not hold.

The political observers argued there are 28 regional parties in the INDIA alliance bloc and if assembly elections in Delhi and Punjab are held with the Lok Sabha polls, the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress will fight against each other.

Neither will Mamata Banerjee share power with the Congress or the Left in West Bengal. Similarly, the chances are bleak that Congress will give up its seats in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan or Karnataka for any other regional party. And Prime Minister Narendra Modi of all people knows it.