America’s population trends have led to a socalled “racial generation gap” where the younger population is far more diverse than older age groups. In April 2021, the US Census Bureau released the first set of results from the 2020 decennial census, providing a snapshot of the American population for use in Congressional reapportionment and redistricting (comparable to the delimitation exercise in India). In recent weeks, however, the agency has released more detailed census information that presents a fuller picture of the population. In his analysis of the new data, demographer William Frey explores how this pattern is unfolding across the USA. The country continues to age with the fastest population growth occurring among the older population while the youth population declines. But the big finding is that this aging is not “race neutral.” White Americans contributed substantially to older population gains compared to younger and middle-aged populations, which registered white declines.

Non-white citizens accounted for all the gains in the population. Although all race and ethnic groups are aging to some degree, adds Frey, the median age of white Americans is higher than all others in most areas across the country. These patterns have resulted in a racial generation gap, in which the younger population ~ more influenced by immigration ~ is much more ethnically diverse than older age groups. This demographic phenomenon underlies nearly all aspects of American social life. During the 2010-20 decade, the 65-and-older population grew by 38.6 per cent, which is over twice as much as during 2000-10 and more than triple the rate of the 1990s. More significantly, the under-18 or youth population declined in the 2010s. This decline is attributed to fewer births associated with lower fertility and proportionately fewer women in childbearing ages due to the aging population, as well as reduced immigration in the later part of the 2010s.

Taken together, these trends increased the share of the seniors to 16.8 per cent of the overall population while the youth population was pegged at 22.1 per cent in 2020. The median age in America is now close to 39. Among most age categories, non-white gains are attributable to larger numbers aging into the category (along with new immigrants) compared with the number aging out of the category. In the case of younger groups, a rise in births also contributes to this trend. Racial minorities now comprise over half of the zero to 4 and 5 to 17 age groups, with Hispanics representing more than a quarter. In contrast, white Americans comprise about three-quarters of the 65 to 74 and 75-plus age groups.

The 2020 census is the first to show that less than half of US children under the age of 18 identified as white. The bottom line is that population growth among racial minorities including Hispanic and Asian Americans has countered the aging and now declining white population in youth and prime labour force age groups. It is certain to impact the country’s social fabric and its politics. The next couple of presidential elections will probably be the last ones where the ‘white vote’ will be the decider