Nataka (drama) pretty much rhymes with the name of the state –Karnataka — where results of the Vidhan Sabha elections are expected in a few hours.

Even as the results are awaited, the drama has started unfolding; the two Congress factions led by former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and DK Shivkumar were reportedly collecting and keeping their flock intact, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not happy with BS Bommai at the helm has not named their CM candidate but are keen to exploit any available opportunity to form the government while Janata Dal-Secular (ex-president) HD Kumaraswamy who knows well that his party can only leverage some power in case of a hung assembly has flown to Singapore making himself dearer to both the Congress and the saffron party in case there is something to leverage.

Dharmasenan, a veteran journalist, who has his ear close to the ground repeats a dialogue from the Bollywood blockbuster — Om Shanti Om, “Picture abhi baki hai mere dost.” Casually translated it means, “My Friend, The Film Isn’t Over Yet.” He adds, “Take a look at the past four Vidhan Sabha elections in Karnataka and you know except 2013, all the three elections – 2018, 208, 2004 had some drama unfolding every two years.”

Let’s take a look at what Dharmasenan is referring to.

2018 Vidhan Sabha polls

Before the polls, out of the eight exit polls, five polls predicted that BJP will be the single largest party but there will be a hung assembly and the remaining three had predicted that Congress will be the single largest party and again they too predicted a hung assembly. The drama started to unfold after the election results. BJP with 104 seats could not form the government and Congress with 80 seats forged an alliance with Janata Dal (S) which had 37 seats. However, 14 months later, 16 ruling coalition MLAs resigned making the strength Congress-JDS alliance down to 101 while two independent MLAs joined the BJP taking the BJP tally to 107 and well past the new halfway mark of 105. BS Yediyurappa became the CM. In 2021, Yediyurappa too had to resign after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intervention. This paved way for BS Bommai, who became the new chief minister.

2013 Vidhan Sabha polls

There wasn’t much drama in the 2013 Karnataka VS polls. The major exit polls predicted a Congress victory and that came out to be true. Congress won 122 seats in an assembly of 224 while BJP and Janata Dal (S) secured 40 seats each and Siddaramaiah became the CM of Karnataka. Ahead of the 2013 elections, sensing trouble BJP made Jagdish Shettar the CM of Karnataka. However, he was defeated in the elections and had to resign. In 2023, Shettar was denied the ticket by the BJP and the former Karnataka CM joined the Congress in the presence of Mallikarjuna Kharge and Siddaramaiah.

2008 Vidhan Sabha polls

In 2008, the saffron party for the first time broke the barrier beyond the Vindhyas. It came to power in the southern state with 110 seats well short of the halfway mark. BJP with the backing of six independents five, of whom had to be given cabinet berths came to power, and BS Yediyurappa became the CM. Congress had won 80 seats while Janata Dal (S) won 28.

However, in the five years, the saffron outfit had three Chief Ministers – Yeddyurappa who was mired in controversies and was also arrested in a land scam in 2011 along with other BJP leaders. After his resignation, his chosen man DV Sadananda Gowda became the CM who too was replaced by Jagdish Shettar as CM towards the end of the term.

2004 Vidhan Sabha polls

It was the 2004 Vidhan Sabha election results that were termed by everybody a khichdi result by psephologists and a shadow of the events which would unfold in the coming two decades. For the first time, BJP won the highest number of seats 79, Congress won 65 seats and JDS won 58 seats. While no one was in a position to form the government, Congress and JDS came together to form an alliance.

Dharam Singh of the Congress became the CM. But in early 2006, JDS withdrew support and HD Kumaraswamy with the help of the BJP became the CM of Karnataka with Yediyurappa as his deputy. This was just the beginning of the drama that kept unfolding in the next three VS elections.

Bengaluru-based keen watcher of Karnataka affairs Vijay Grover says, “Kumaraswamy wants to remain relevant, Congress does not want to lose its hold, this is one big state where they want to stay relevant, for the BJP Karnataka is the doorway to the southern states and thus it is an important state to them.”

Ask him how he visualizes the new Vidhan Sabha and he responds, “Picture baaki hai par khiladi naye hain (It is the same film but with new players).”