The importance of Istanbul to the outcome of the Turkish presidential election, due at the end of this month, was underscored by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a show of force on the weekend in the iconic city. Termed the “rally of the century”, the show saw a claimed one million people gather at the city’s old airport as Mr. Erdogan, who has been president since 2014, battles to fight anti-incumbency and a united opposition that sees its best chance in this election.

Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) had lost the Istanbul mayoral elections in 2019, an outcome the president, a former mayor of the city himself, would have found especially galling. Now, with reports suggesting that Turkey’s younger voters may be overwhelmingly backing his opponent, Kemal Kiricdaroglu, the Turkish strongman appeared to have pulled out all the stops to make a point. Reports suggest that more than 10,000 buses were hired to bring supporters to the rally, where Mr. Erdogan declared, “If you say okay, we will win for sure.”

Mr. Kiricdaroglu, too, has also been drawing impressive crowds and his message ~ of leading a movement to restore democracy ~ has found considerable resonance. Many Turkish voters are resentful of Mr. Erdogan’s rule, saying they have lost important rights. But a major cause of resentment seems to be the alleged mishandling of the earthquake that hit the country earlier this year, and reports that fewer lives would have been lost had Mr. Erdogan’s government implemented stringent building codes. Instead, reports suggest that many of the President’s cronies were able to put up shoddily constructed buildings that collapsed when the quake struck. Many of Turkey’s young voters have known no leader other than Mr. Erdogan, who became Prime Minister two decades ago and then targeted the country’s parliamentary system to concentrate powers in the office of the President.

They are resentful of his overbearing rule, and feel frustrated by the economic reverses which have seen the Turkish lira’s strength reduce from four to the US dollar five years ago to nearly 20 now and inflation soar above 50 per cent in March. Mr. Kiricdaroglu, among other things, has promised a return to a proper parliamentary democracy, and an effective system of checks and balances that will restore the economy’s health.

Turkey must also contend with the possibility of Mr. Erdogan scraping through in the presidential contest but his party losing its parliamentary majority. In the end, the outcome will hinge on a significant number of undecided voters, and Mr. Erdogan’s outreach in Istanbul was aimed at helping some of them make up their minds.