The striking feature of the by-election in Asansol (Lok Sabha) and Ballygunge (Assembly) constituencies is the victory of the former BJP politician who has retained the South Kolkata seat, albeit with a considerably narrower margin. The other saffronite politician, Shatrughan Sinha, has helped the Trinamul Congress wrest the Asansol Lok Sabha seat from the BJP with a record margin. That Ballygunge would vote for Trinamul was generally expected not the least because the constituency had been nurtured by the late Subrata Mukherjee. That said, it has been a grudging acceptance of Babul Supriyo, a saffronite turncoat after all. No less markedly, the BJP nominee, Keya Ghosh, has lost her deposit. 

The CPI-M does have an edge in a predominantly upper-middle-class area; the party’s candidate, Saira Shah Halim, came second. The slide in the Trinamul’s standing in Ballygunge signifies the inherent reservation against turncoats, despite the fact that Babul Supriyo was a minister at the Centre. Remarkable has been the psephological swing in the span of a year. From a margin of 75,359 votes in 2021 (Subrata Mukherjee), it has declined to 20,228 in 2022. The outcome in Ballygunge and the BJP’s rout in Asansol, which the party had won in 2014 and 2019, would suggest that Bengal has firmly hitched its wagon to the Trinamul Congress. 

From upmarket Ballygunge to semi-urban, if predominantly industrial Asansol, the outcome of the two by-elections has been a morale booster for the ruling party at a critical juncture, specifically when Central agencies are investigating a welter of cases related to corruption and law and order. At the same time, it has made it clear that while individual candidates might contend with pulls and pressures, it is ultimately Mamata Banerjee’s endorsement that decides the outcome. 

In Ballygunge, the BJP won just 12.83 per cent of the votes against Trinamul’s 49.69 per cent. But the reduced margin carries with it a note of caution. In its prognosis, Trinamul has attributed the slide to a lower voter turnout of ~ 42 per cent in the by-election against more than 61 per cent last May. But this scarcely explains the decline in the vote-share ~ from 71 per cent last year to 49.6 per cent in 2022. Some may even wonder whether the decline is the fallout of Supriyo’s candidature. 

The BJP-turned Trinamul candidate had, it bears recalling, made divisive and inflammatory comments ahead of the by-election. At another remove, Ballygunge, a constituency that boasts 42 per cent Muslim votes, had witnessed a “No vote to Babul” campaign.