In an editorial dated 26 December, 2021, Global Times, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese government, has made a startling statement: “If India were to choose an ally, it would be China first and foremost, not the US, as this is in line with the laws of economic development under globalization, and the needs of the two peoples’ interests”.

Suddenly Sino-Indian love is blooming. On 26 November 2021, Global Times ran a story entitled, “India’s support for Beijing Winter Olympic Games shows it is not a natural US ally.” There are rumours that PM Modi might be invited to the Beijing Winter Olympics as the chief guest, and if he is, he could go.

Global Times further adds that India will not become a US ally or another “little brother” like Japan or Australia. It goes on to say that India has a dream to become a great power itself and will be reluctant to be attached to the US. Suddenly, China seems desperate to wean India away from the US.

But was India in any case that weaned to the US? If you leave out Africa, South America, and parts of Asia, the world today can be roughly divided like this: There is the Christian West, which is broken into the White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP) countries like the US, the UK and Australia, and then the Catholic Latin countries like France. There has been historical animosity between the two groups, although that has withered away somewhat today.

Then there are the Christian Orthodox Slav countries like Russia. The Christian West countries have traditionally looked down upon the Slav countries. There is great friction between the Christian West countries and the Slav countries even today. Then there is the communist in name only China and the Hindu-majority-India.

Russia has ranged itself against the West by aligning itself with China. India grew close to the US by entering the Quad alliance. But India got a shock when the US breached the Quad and decided to supply nuclear-powered submarines to a WASP country like Australia but not to India.

No matter what people claim now, Quad was envisioned as a military alliance to contain China. If it were not, then why did it conduct so many military drills in the seas bordering China and still continues to do so? Stung by the American betrayal, India gave two hoots about American sanctions and obtained the S-400 missile defence system from Russia.

It should be noted that the first battery of the S-400 has been deployed against Pakistan, not China. India constantly claims that China is India’s number one threat, but as even Pervez Musharraf noted when he was president of Pakistan, most of India’s army is ranged against Pakistan, not China. The way the S-400 is being deployed is perhaps another signal that India, in practice, doesn’t consider China as its number one threat.

The Quad suddenly has become a mechanism not to militarily contain China so much as a way to distribute pandemic vaccines. The Global Times says that it is time for Indians to seriously consider why, during a pandemic, even amidst repeated domestic boycotts of Made-in-China goods, trade volume between the two countries hit a record high of $100 billion by November 2021, according to the latest data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs.

Vladimir Putin made a dash to India to sell his S-400 system and perhaps the even more advanced S-500 system. According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), India’s top three arms suppliers during 2016-20 were Russia (accounting for 49 per cent of India’s imports), France (18 per cent) and Israel (13 per cent).

Note that the US is not in the top three arms exporters to India. Its arms exports to India declined by 46 per cent during 2016-20. Today India is making a big push in its Make in India campaign primarily through the defence sector. India though cannot decide to go it completely alone. It will have to engage in joint ventures to develop technologies and manufacture themselves indigenously. The figures speak for themselves. India does not need the US for arms. The French are keen to supply nuclear-powered subs to India. The Russians have some of the best aircraft in the world in the Sukhoi and ballistic missile systems in the S-X00 series. The Israelis have some of the best drones.

India seems to have realized that the US is no great friend, and quite possibly never will be. The arms figures speak for themselves. India is firmly partnered with relatively independent countries like Russia and France. It is truly non-aligned when it comes to defence purchases, which are still by far the biggest purchases India makes. How then can India afford to jeopardize its relations with Russia by going into the American camp?

Russia in fact seems to be keen to broker peace between India and China. On the rebound, India actually might enter into an alliance with China, as Global Times asserts, as opposed to sticking to its so-called natural ally, the US. How the wheel turns. The US seems keen that India and China get into a scrap for that will hurt China, but sane heads in India, China, and Russia seem determined to stop that from happening. It is paramount then that the Chinese government follows up on its words and stops its aggression in Ladakh if it wants to become India’s number one ally.

(The writer is an expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas.)