The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or “Mitrajot” (Alliance of Friends) is set to form the government in Assam for the second consecutive time, as the ruling alliance according to the latest trends is likely to win 75 seats in the 126-member Assembly. The Congress-led “Mahajot” (Grand Alliance) is expected to win 45 seats.

The Election Commission (EC) is yet to declare the final result on any of the 126 seats as the counting of votes is still in progress in 34 districts across the northeastern state.

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All important candidates of the BJP, including Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, who is seeking re-election from Majuli Assembly constituency in eastern Assam, state Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma from Jalukbari Assembly constituency and state BJP President Ranjeet Kumar Dass from Patacharkuchi Assembly constituency, are leading on their respective seats.

Many top Congress leaders, including state Congress President Ripun Bora and Legislature Party leader Debabrata Saikia are trailing in the Gohpur and Nazira Assembly seats, respectively. Of the 126 seats, the BJP is leading in 56 seats while its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is leading in eleven seats and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) in eight seats.

The Congress is leading in 29 seats while its partners All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is leading in 14 seats, Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF) and the CPI-M in one seat each. Raijor Dal (RD) President and jailed leader, Akhil Gogoi, who is contesting from Sibasagar constituency as an independent candidate, is also leading.

The Muslim-based party AIUDF, which won 13 seats during the 2016 Assembly polls, is leading in 14 seats while BPF which had bagged 12 seats five years ago, is leading in only one seat in the Bodoland areas of western Assam. The AIUDF led by perfume baron and Lok Sabha member Badruddin Ajmal, last time independently contested the elections and this time (2021) they put up 20 candidates in alliance with Congress-led Mahajot, which is a conglomeration of ten parties. The BPF was earlier an ally of the BJP and is now an alliance partner of the “Mahajot”.

Though the opposition Congress-led Grand Alliance performed poorly in most parts of Assam, it performed a little better in the Bengali dominated southern Assam.

Of the 15 seats in southern Assam’s Barak Valley comprising three districts — Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi — the “Mahajot” is leading in 11 seats with the BJP and its ally heading in four seats.

During the 2016 state Assembly elections in Barak Valley, the BJP won eight seats and the Congress had bagged seven seats. The BJP had won 60 seats during the previous Assembly elections in 2016 while its ally AGP had managed 14 seats and the Congress had secured 26 seats and one seat went to the independent candidate.