The election for another eight seats of western UP for the 17^th Lok Sabha, that will have the second phase of polling on April 18, has become interesting with the direct fight between the BJP and alliance candidates on most of the seats.

All of these eight seats of western UP, viz Bulandshahr, Nageena, Sambhal, Aligarh, Hatras, Mathura, Agra and Fatehpur Sikri, which are part of the Jat land as it is popularly called because of the predominant Jat community, will have polling on Thursday.

With the alliance of BSP-SP-RLD in the state, the political equations here have become very interesting and the BJP is facing a tough challenge. It had won all of these seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

On these seats, Jats, besides Muslims and Dalits, play a decisive role. This Jat-Muslim-Dalit equation, which had helped the alliance to win the recent by-election in Kairana and Noorpur, is again expected to play a spoilsport for the ruling BJP.

The fight on these seats is directly between the alliance and the BJP with the exception of Fatehpur Sikri where Congress candidate and state President Raj Babbar is the candidate. However, on the rest of the seats, Congress candidates are not expected to put up a major show.

SAMBHAL

Candidates

Parmeshwar Lal Saini – BJP

Shafiqur Rahman Barq  – SP

Major JP Singh  – INC

Total voters – 1693229

Female voters – 761516

Male Voters – 931603

Sambhal Lok Sabha seat falls under Moradabad division where BJP candidate Satyapal Singh Saini had defeated SP candidate Shafique Rehman Barq by a margin of just 5174 votes. This was not very encouraging for the BJP. It is perhaps for this reason that the leadership did not repeat it’s sitting MP and gave the ticket to Parmeshwar Lal Saini while the alliance repeated Barq.

Sambhal is having five assembly segments, Chandausi, Asmoli, Bilari, Kundarki and Sambhal and four of these have SP MLAs while BJP has one MLA. This clearly indicates the influence of SP on this constituency on which the party stalwarts Mulayam Singh Yadav (twice from 1998 to 2004) and Ramgopal Yadav (2004-09) were MPs. In 2009, Barq became the MP on a BSP ticket giving a setback to the SP while in 2014 it was won by the BJP.

Sambhal seat is having a good percentage of Muslim and Yadav votes, though after 2004, because of delimitation, the percentage of Yadav votes has decreased. Dalit vote is also crucial here. The SP candidate is hopeful to win this time getting the advantage of an alliance with BSP and RLD.

2014 election result

BJP Satyapal Singh Saini 3, 60,000

SP Shafiqur Raab Barq 3,55,068

BSP Aqueelur Rehman Khan 2,52,640

INC Pramod Krishnan 16,034

Margin of victory 5, 174

NAGEENA

Candidates

Dr Yashwant Singh BJP

Girish Chandra BSP

Omvati Devi Jatav INC

Total voters 1574998

Female voters 736781

Male voters 838144

Nageena Lok Sabha constituency is also considered a stronghold of SP. On three of its five assembly segments, Najibabad, Nagina, Dhampur, Nehtaur and Noorpur, three legislators are from SP while two BJP legislators were elected in 2017 assembly election. Noorpur seat was also won by BJP in 2017 but the party lost it to the alliance in the by-election last year.

The constituency is dominated by Jats and Muslims where Dalits also play a key role. Once part of Bijnor, leaders like Mayawati and Meera Kumar have represented it in the Parliament. Ram Vilas Paswan also had contested the election from here.

The constituency came into existence after delimitation of 2008. In 2009 election, it was won by SP’s Yashvir Singh and in 2014 it went to the BJP when Yashwant Singh won by a margin of over 90 thousand votes and he is again in the fray. Though this time facing he is facing strong resentment of the people.

Girish Chandra is the BSP candidate who in 2014 had finished third after Yashvir Singh of SP. Congress, however, has given the ticket to Omvati, a seasoned politician who was an MP from Bijnor, four times MLA and minister in UP cabinet. She had recently joined Congress. With her political experience and campaign of Priyanka Gandhi, Omvati may give a tough fight to her.

2014 election result

BJP Yashwant Singh 3,67,825

SP Yashvir Singh 2,75,435

BSP Girish Chandra 2, 45,685

Margin of victory 92,390

FATEHPUR SIKRI

Candidates

Raj Kumar Chahar BJP

Raj Babbar INC

Shri Bhagwan Sharma BSP

Total voters 15,80,582

Female voters 7,03,311

Male voters 8,77,271

After the delimitation of 2008, this Lok Sabha seat came into existence and its first MP was Seema Upadhyay of BSP who was elected in 2009 defeating Raj Babbar of Congress by a meagre margin of 9936 votes. She, however, was defeated by Chaudhary Babu Lal of BJP in 2014 while Babbar was not in the fray.

Though winning the election by a margin of about 1.73 votes, sitting MP Babu Lal was not given the ticket by the party which opted for a new face Raj Kumar Chahar who wields good influence in the area. BSP too has given ticket to a new face here Shri Bhagwan Sharma alias Guddu Pandit, a former MLA. But making the election interesting on this seat is Congress candidate Raj Babbar who also happens to be the PCC chief of UP. Babbar has been the MP from Samajwadi Party twice from Agra in 1999 and 2004. He again won the by-election from Ferozabad on a Congress ticket defeating Dimple Yadav. In 2014, Babbar moved to Ghaziabad where he was defeated by VK Singh of BJP.

Muslims dominate this seat while Dalits and other SCs are also prominent players here. Rajputs and Kushwahas also will be having a considerable impact on the election.

2014 election result

BJP Ch Babu Lal 4,26,589

BSP Seema Upadhyay 2,53,493

SP Pakshalika Singh 2, 13, 397

RLD Amar Singh 24, 185

Margin of Victory 1, 73, 106

ALIGARH

Candidates

Satish Kumar Gautam BJP

Ajeet Baliyan BSP

Bijendra Singh INC

Total voters 17, 93,126

Female voters 8, 27,131

Male voters 9,65,995

This Lok Sabha constituency is known to be a stronghold of BJP. From 1991 to 2004, the party MP Shiela was invincible. In 2004, the seat went to Congress’ Bijendra Singh who lost to Rajkumar Chauhan of BSP in 2009 but in 2014 BJP won it back. It was a landslide victory for its candidate Satish Kumar Gautam who won by a margin of 2.86 lakh votes.

Aligarh, known for Aligarh Muslim University, has 20% Muslim votes which are influential though no Muslim candidate has been elected as an MP from this seat. Jat community is also predominant and its presence spreads over 80 villages of Aligarh district. The Muslim -Jat- Dalit equation is expected to work here in favour of the alliance candidate who is from the Jat community. Bijendra Singh, also a Jat leader is also expected to cut Jat votes.

2014 election result

BJP Satish Kumar Gautam 5, 14,624

BSP Arvind Kumar Singh 2,27,886

SP Zafar Alam 2,26,284

INC Bijendra Singh 62,674

Margin of victory 2,86,736

AGRA

Candidates

SP Singh Baghel BJP

Manoj Kumar Saini BSP

Preeta Harit INC

Total voters 18,14,739

Female voters 8,10,962

Male Voters 10,03,777

Former union minister, Ramshanker Katheria, had won the seat successively in 2009 and 2014 for BJP but the party leadership this time opted for SP Singh Baghel which has disappointed the supporters of Katheria. The seat has a good percentage of Jatav voters which is almost 2 lakh and Muslim voters (1.87 lakh approx) also play a decisive role. The seat has a good share of Thakur, Brahmin and Yadav votes and has been a centre of Dalit politics in the state.

With the alliance of BSP-SP-RLD, the Muslim, Dalit and Yadav votes are expected to polarise in favour of their candidate and this is a challenge for Baghel.

2014 election result

BJP Ramshanker Katheria 5,83,716

BSP Narayan Singh Suman 2,83,453

SP Maharaj Singh Dhangar 1,34,708

INC Upendra Singh 34,834

Margin of victory 3,00,263

MATHURA

Candidates

Hema Malini BJP

Kunwar Narendra Singh RLD

Mahesh Pathak INC

Total Voters 16, 82,260

Female voters 7,50,645

Male voters 9,31,615

This constituency is dominated by Jat community while Muslims are the second most important voters here making a winnable equation for the RLD which is contesting on just three seats in UP as part of the alliance with SP and BSP. Party Vice President Jayant was an MP from here in 2009 but lost to Hema Malini of BJP in 2014.

This time, RLD has given ticket to Kunwar Narendra Singh who is considered a weak candidate against Hema Malini.

Malini had won the 2014 election by a margin of over 3.3 lakh votes defeating RLD Vice President Jayant Chaudhary. Malini is facing the anger of the people who are targetting her for not giving time to the constituency. This was seen in the rally of CM Yogi Adityanath in Mathura on the day of her nomination when only a small crowd turned up. But Malini is working hard to win this election having declared it as her last political battle. She even called her husband Dharmendra to campaign for her with an eye on the Jat voters.

2014 election result

BJP Hema Malini 5,74,633

RLD,Jayant Chaudhary 2,43,890

BSP Pt Yogesh Kumar Dwivedi 1,73,572

SP Chandan Singh 36,673

HATHRAS (reserved seat)

Candidates

Rajveer Singh Balmiki BJP

Shree Ramji Lal Suman SP

Trilokiram Diwakar INC

From 1999 to 2009, Kishan Lal has been the BJP MP for two terms consecutively on this seat. But in 2009 election, Sarika Baghel of RLD defeated him. However, in 2014, the seat was again retained by the BJP and its candidate Rajesh Kumar Diwakar won by a margin of over 3.26 lakh votes.

Diwakar is again in the fray as BJP candidate.

Jats and Muslims dominate this constituency and if they come together it could be beneficial for the alliance candidate Shree Ramji Lal Suman who was third in 2014 election. The resentment of farmers against the government could also dampen the prospects of the BJP candidate on this seat.

Total voters 17,58,927

Female voters 7,89,019

Male voters 9,69,908

2014 Election Result

BJP Rajesh Kumar Diwakar 5,44277

BSP Manoj Kumar Soni 2,17,891

SP Ramji Lal Suman 1,80,891

RLD Niranjan Singh 86,109

BULANDSHAHR

Reserved SC

Candidates

Bhola Singh BJP

Yogesh Verma SP

Bansi Lal Pahadia INC

Total voters 17,36,447

Female voters 8,05,616

Male voters 9,30,831

There are five assembly segments in this reserved constituency and BJP has its MLAs on all five of these, viz Anopshahr, Syana, Bulandshahr, Dibai and Shikarpur. But this is not helping the sitting BJP MP Bhola Singh this time who is facing a strong resentment of the people here.

In 2014, Bhola Singh had secured a landslide victory defeating Kamlesh Balmiki of SP with a margin of over 4.21 lakh votes. This time the main rival of Singh is alliance candidate Yogesh Verma, a former MLA from Meerut who is banking on Muslim, Jat and Dalit votes.

In Bulandshahr district 22% are Muslim besides Jats, Lodh Rajputs and Brahmins. Since 1991, Bulandshahr seat has been with the BJP with the exception of 2009. In 2004, Kalyan Singh was elected MP from here. Bhola Singh is again banking on the influence of Kalyan Singh.

2014 election result

BJP Bhola Singh 6,04,449

BSP Pradeep Kumar Jatav 1,82,476

SP Kamlesh Balmiki 1,28,737

RLD Anju 59,116

Margin of victory 4,21,973.