A new jump in cases in South Africa has found the government now rushing to vaccinate enough of its 60 million to dull the impact of the impending wave.
Experts say the surge hasn’t yet peaked as South Africa re-imposed several restrictions, including closing restaurants, bars and limiting alcohol sales.
But even as the campaign gathers pace, experts say it’s too late to reduce the deadly impact of the current spike.
“By all accounts the current resurgence is going to completely dwarf what we experienced either in the first or second waves in South Africa,” said Shabir Madhi, dean of health sciences and professor of vaccinology at the University of Witwatersrand.
South Africa accounts for more than 35 per cent of the 5.8 million cases recorded by Africa’s 54 countries, although it is home to just over 4 per cent of the continent’s population.
Its troubles reflect a broader trend. Neighboring Zimbabwe went back into lockdown on 6 July, and Congo, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia are among the 16 African countries battling the new surge of infections sweeping across the continent.
“Africa has just marked the continent’s most dire pandemic week ever. But the worst is yet to come as the fast-moving third wave continues to gain speed and new ground,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Africa.
“The end to this precipitous rise is still weeks away. Cases are doubling now every 18 days, compared with every 21 days only a week ago,” she added Thursday.
The current upsurge comes while the continent’s vaccination rates are abject: Just 16 million, or less than 2 per cent, of Africa’s 1.3 billion people are now fully vaccinated, according to the WHO.
More than 4 million South Africans, or about 6.5 per cent, have received at least one dose, with 1.3 million fully vaccinated, according to government figures Saturday.
Still, the drive is picking up speed after a bumpy campaign so far, marked by missteps and bad luck.
Although South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was quick to respond to Covid-19 and put the country into one of the world’s strictest lockdowns in March last year, his officials were slow to place firm orders for vaccines, say critics.
This appeared to be resolved when South Africa’s first delivery of vaccines — 1 million doses of AstraZeneca — arrived in February.
The suspension due to vaccine imbroglio was brief, but South Africa eventually had to discard its doses because they were made with materials provided by a US factory where there were concerns about contamination.
A further obstacle came when Health Minister Zweli Mkhize was suspended amid a corruption scandal in which his family members are accused of benefitting from an inflated government contract.
This all exacted a toll on South Africa’s vaccination drive.
By the middle of May, the country had inoculated just 40 per cent of its 1.25 million health care workers.
In recent weeks, the supply issues have eased: Large shipments are arriving weekly of the 40 million Pfizer doses that South Africa purchased.
The country is getting another 31 million J&J vaccines, most assembled in South Africa.
Vaccinations began for those 60 and over in late May, and schoolteachers and police officers became eligible for vaccines in June. In early July, shots opened up to those age 50 and over, and later this month the eligibility will be expanded to those 35 and older.
Vaccination sites have multiplied from a few dozen to several hundred, and the country soon hopes to be on pace to inoculate two-thirds of its population by the end of February.