India concludes another year dominated by extreme weather, with climate change fuelling an alarming rise in disasters across the nation. India experiences the full spectrum of climate impacts, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, cyclones, wildfires and erratic rainfall patterns.
A report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revealed that India recorded extreme weather events on 255 of the first 274 days of 2024, underscoring the profound influence of global warming on the country.
Warm winters followed by unprecedented heatwaves
The year began with warm winters under the influence of El Niño, marking the fourth consecutive year without a spring season. January 2024 witnessed its lowest rainfall since 1901 and the fourth-highest minimum temperature on record. February followed suit, with its second-highest minimum temperature in 123 years, exceeding the normal by 1.63 degrees Celsius.
Heatwaves arrived earlier and with strong intensity, wherein India experienced 536 heatwave days during the summer 2024, the highest since 2010 (578 days) as per the data by IMD. Several government data and media houses reported over 200 fatalities and 25,000 cases of heatstroke due to intense heatwaves. The impact was also seen on the Lok Sabha elections which were underway during the summer season. Official data by Election Commission of India recorded deaths of 33 polling officers due to inadequate cooling facilities.
Experts have claimed this to be conservative number as this did not include the extended health impact of prolonged heatwave condition.
Nighttime temperatures also soared to record levels, with July, August and September registering the highest minimum temperatures since 1901. Research study by Climate Trends and Climate Central indicates that between 2018 and 2023, many Indian cities across Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and Andhra Pradesh experienced an additional 50–80 nights annually where temperatures exceeded 25 degrees Celsius due to climate change. Lack of proper sleep can adversely affect physical and mental health, cognitive functioning and even life expectancy. The World Health Organization recommends the room temperature should be kept at 24 degrees Celsius during the night.
Forest fires and erratic monsoon rainfall
Rising temperatures and erratic winter precipitation have fuelled unprecedented forest fires. Uttarakhand alone reported 5,710 fires in April 2024, compared to just 1,046 in April 2023. According to the Uttarakhand Forest Department, the state recorded 11,256 incidents between November 2023 and June 2024, driven by prolonged dry conditions and rise in ambient air temperature.
The 2024 monsoon recorded the highest number of heavy rainfall events in the last five years. June recorded the second-highest very heavy rainfall events in the last five years, while July also reported the second-highest number of extremely heavy rainfall events. As per the IMD data, 753 stations recorded very heavy rainfall in August, the highest since 2020, while September marked a new record, with 525 stations recording very heavy rainfall.
The summer monsoon, once predictable, is now becoming more erratic and unreliable due to climate change. Extended summer-like conditions during the season have altered the performance of weather systems, leading to aggravated, erratic, and incessant monsoons, making dry years drier and wet years wetter. Around 70 per cent districts now experience persistent and erratic rainfall more frequently.
Kerala bore the brunt of these changes, with Wayanad experiencing devastating floods and landslides triggered by intense downpours on dry soils. The region, once known for its year-round drizzles, is now grappling with hotter summers and erratic monsoon patterns. Due to change in the Monsoon weather patterns, rains are usually in the form of intense downpours during the monsoons, increasing the risk of landslides like the one we saw this year. Dry soils absorb less water and heavy rainfalls cause run-offs that can lead to landslides, which was witnessed in Wayanad this year.
Cyclone surge and ocean warming
Increased cyclogenesis has been quite evident in the North Indian Ocean, which is also the hotspot for climate change. 2024 saw four cyclones so far (Dana, Asna, Remal and Fengal), out of which two (Dana and Remal) went on to become severe cyclones. The north Indian Ocean has seen the highest rise in temperatures across the world due to global warming, resulting in a steep rise in both the intensity and frequency of cyclones. The latest storm Fengal, struggled to intensify into a cyclonic storm but rise in the sea surface temperatures due to ocean warming pushed it to that limit. According to a study ‘Changing status of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean’, very severe cyclones have increased by 150 per cent in the Indian Ocean.
Air pollution
Air pollution remains a chronic challenge, with Delhi and neighbouring areas experiencing a week of “severe” air quality in November. The absolute absence of rainfall throughout October and most of November worsened the situation. While multiple factors are responsible for degrading air quality, the role of climate change has been growing constantly in further aggravating the challenge. Warming-induced changes in temperature, precipitation days (more dry days) and surface wind speed (more weak dispersion days) are evident in the Indo-Gangetic plains, leading to rise in the winter stagnation days over the region.
November: The warmest on record
November 2024 was India’s warmest November since 1901, with Northwest India recording its highest-ever mean temperature with an anomaly of 1.37 degrees Celsius. The transition to winter has been delayed due to an absence of rain, and December is expected to follow this warmer trend.
November is considered to be the transition month from warmer conditions to wintery conditions for the entire northwestern region. However, the absolute absence of rainfall for the majority of the month paved the way for rise in the temperature. December has also not been very promising in terms of rains and is likely to end on the warmer side only. IMD has also predicted a warmer winter season this year with fewer spells of cold waves.
2024 has once again highlighted the growing urgency of implementing climate-resilient measures. India must prioritise equitable access to cooling solutions, robust public health systems and adaptive strategies to combat the escalating challenges of a warming climate.
The writer is lead, Climate Impact, Climate Trends LLP