Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has staged a campaign against Russia, accusing Moscow of going to an unprovocative and illegal war in Ukraine. Considering Thucydides’ Trap in Peloponnesian War, Russia under President Vladimir Putin’s rule may feel threatened by emerging power Ukraine.
From Russia’s strategic perspective, sooner or later Ukraine will fall into the West orbits, let’s say, the EU and especially NATO. In this context, Russia has its own reason to protect its national security interest. Thus, the war is justified by Russia. Likewise, the West also has its own reason to bolster NATO security. Thus, who provokes who? It is hard to say as there are two sides to the conflict and no one is walking a fine line. Isolation and exclusion of Russia from the international community are not a good remedy for the crisis. The only way out of the crisis is political dialogue and diplomacy. The West’s hawkish stance against Russia is by no means beneficial for the world. It instead can bifurcate the world.
The West has staged a campaign to isolate Russia. The walkout staged by several Western members at the recent G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers in Washington while Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was speaking at the meeting remotely is an exemplification. However, walking out of the meeting while the opposing side is speaking is better than not inviting, cancelling or not attending the meeting at all. This can be a good diplomatic means.
The US has also encouraged Indonesia not to invite Russia. Indonesia, however, is known to still insist to invite Russia. Will all countries across the world follow them all? Presumably not. Italy, the rightist Hungary and the National Rally of the far-right and nationalist Marine Le Pen or GOP under Donald Trump in the US, are seen apparently opposing such a policy. Likewise, ASEAN, under the chairmanship of Cambodia this year, should not let them dictate such a hawkish policy in the region.
The West encourages ASEAN member states as well as ASEAN to exclude Russia from any meetings within ASEAN-led mechanisms. Will Russia’s presence at ASEAN related meetings present a big question for ASEAN like Myanmar? The decision rests with ASEAN. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is far different from the Myanmar issue, considering the nature and geopolitical aspect of the issue. The core purposes and principles of ASEAN political documents should be fully upheld and respected.
ASEAN-led mechanisms are platforms where all sides can enhance mutual respect, mutual trust, mutual confidence, mutual understanding and mutual interest to promote peace, security, stability and sustainable growth and development. Upholding a policy of non-interference, respect for political independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity is a sine qua non for formal engagement with ASEAN.