On October 7, last year, Hamas’ attack on Israel marked a turning point in West Asia’s geopolitical landscape. It triggered a year of escalating conflict that witnessed the direct involvement of Iran, the assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on Israel on October 2 this year.
As the region continues to unravel, the implications of these events, especially for countries like India, seem profound. Initially, 2023 saw hope for regional stability with the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Syria’s return to the Arab League, and prospects of Israel normalizing relations with Arab states. However, the October 7 at tack ~ along with the subsequent events of 2024 ~ have sharply altered this trajectory. This article examines the critical developments over the past year, along with an assessment of the potential paths forward. The 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the deadliest since the Second Intifada, left approximately 1,139 Israelis dead and saw over 250 people taken hostage. In retaliation, Israel launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza, resulting in over 41,000 Palestinian deaths and the displacement of nearly 2.3 million Gazans.
According to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief Herzi Halevi, this military campaign aimed to dismantle Hamas’ operational capabilities across the region. However, the conflict quickly expanded beyond Gaza. In June this year, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in a precise strike believed to be conducted by Israeli operatives, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. The operation came as a direct response to Hamas’ increasing role in escalating violence. This assassination was followed by the death of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in August 2024. The IDF had long considered Nasrallah a key orchestrator of Hezbollah’s actions agai nst Israel, including missile attacks from southern Lebanon. The death of these two leaders dealt a significant blow to Iran’s proxy networks.
However, Iranian officials, including Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), vowed that the “martyrdom” of Haniyeh and Nasrallah would not go unanswered. Their deaths further inflamed tensions and led to an escalation in violence. The most dramatic shift in the conflict came on 2 October 2024, when Iran launched a massive missile and drone strike on Israel. Over 100 ballistic missiles and explosive dron es targeted key Israeli military installations. Iranian state media cited the attack as direct retaliation for the killings of Haniyeh and Nasrallah, claiming that “Zionist crimes wold not go unanswered.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu respon ded to the attack, stating, “Iran has crossed a red line.
We will ensure that those responsible face the full force of Israel’s defence capabilities.” The Israeli Air Force (IAF) swiftly retaliated, targeting IRGC positions across Syria and Iraq. According to Israel’s Defence Ministry, the October 2 strike by Iran represented a “significant escalation”, with the potential to lead to a broader regional conflict. The Iran-Saudi rapprochement, which had been heralded as a major diplomatic breakthrough in 2023, is now under considerable strain. Saudi Arabia, while maintaining neutrality in the IsraelHamas conflict, finds itself increasingly concerned about the broader implications of Iranian aggression. Iran’s actions, including its attacks on Israel and the continued involvement of its proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, threaten to destabilize the entire region.
In response to these tensions, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated, “While we seek peace and stability in West Asia, any unilateral actions that escalate conflict will be met with the necessary countermeasures to protect Saudi interests.” Riyadh remains cautious but is believed to be strengthening its defensive measures against potential Iranian threats. Efforts to revive U.S.Iran diplomacy have also faltered amid the rising tensions. While Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian initially offered some hope for re-engaging with the U.S. to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the current conflict has made such efforts almost impossible. Following Iran’s missile strike, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned Iran’s actions, stating, “The United States will support Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will ensure that Iran’s aggression does not go unchecked.”
With both countries pitching in, prospects for a diplomatic resolution appear increasingly remote, further destabilizing the region and complicating U.S. efforts to contain the conflict. India’s strategic interests in West Asia have become increasingly vulnerable due to the escalating conflict. Historically, India relied heavily on Iran for oil imports, but U.S. sanctions forced India to halt Iranian oil purchases in 2019. With the current conflict, any hope of resuming oil imports from Iran seems distant, as tensions between Tehran and Washington show no signs of easing.
Additionally, the India-Iran Chabahar port project, which holds strategic significance for India’s access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, is at risk. Sanctions on Iran have already slowed progress, and the ongoing conflict complicates matters further. Iranian officials, while welcoming India’s involvement in the project, have remained distracted by the mounting pressure of war with Israel and its proxies. The new India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced during the G20 summit in September 2023, also faces challenges. This ambitious project, aimed at boosting connectivity between India, the Middle East, and Europe, requires political and security stability ~ something West Asia currently lacks. India must therefore carefully navigate its investments and partnerships in the region to protect its longterm strategic goals.
West Asia hosts over 8.9 million Indian migrants, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Any escalation of violence could endanger their safety and disrupt remittances, a critical source of income for many Indian families. Indian authorities have stated that they are closely monitoring the situation, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noting, “India is prepared to protect the safety and interests of its citizens abroad. We remain engaged with regional stakeholders to ensure stability.” One year after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack, West Asia is in deeper turmoil today. The assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, coupled with Iran’s October 2 missile attack on Israel, have set the stage for a broader conflict, one that threatens the entire region’s stability.
The collapse of Iran-Saudi diplomacy, the strained U.S.-Iran relations, and the impact on global energy supplies and strategic projects like Chabahar have further complicated the geopolitical landscape. For India, the escalating conflict underscores the urgent need to navigate its strategic and economic interests carefully. As West Asia teeters on the brink of wider conflict, India must strike a delicate balance to safeguard its energy security, protect its diaspora, and pursue its geopolitical goals. The next phase of this ongoing crisis will depend heavily on the actions of regional powers and the international community. The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, but one thing is clear: the consequences of the October 7 attack continue to reverberate throughout West Asia, with no immediate resolution in sight.
(The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius)