In an interaction that was somewhat reminiscent of the Cold War era, President Vladimir Putin has warned President Biden of what he calls “complete rupture” of ties over the raging crisis in Ukraine.
To the extent that economic sanctions imposed on Russia if it moves to take military action against Ukraine could result in a parting of ways between the two nucear superpowers. The world has been kept guessing about the details of what transpired during the 50-minutes telephone interaction, but the talks for now have ended without clarity about Mr Putin’s intentions. He has massed an estimated 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and has demanded that Nato and the United States pullback in the region.
The Kremlin has not decided whether to order an invasion, however. At another remove, a White House statement said Mr Biden made it “clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further attacks Ukraine”. Clearly, both sides are trying to pave the diplomatic way for talks in Geneva on 10 January, followed by meetings in Brussels and Vienna that will include Nato allies and then Ukraine.
During the conversation, Mr Putin repeatedly accused the United States and Nato of placing offensive weapons near Russia’s borders and endangering the country’s security. It is a charge that Russian officials have made repeatedly in recent times. Over time, it has become increasingly clear that the Russians are referring to nuclear and non-nuclear “global strike” weapons. These include intermediate-range nuclear missiles that were barred by a treaty that Russia had violated for several years and that President Trump had abandoned.
In the reckoning of US officials, Mr Putin’s concern might provide some basis for fresh negotiations with Russia not the least because there are no plans at this juncture to deploy a new range of such weapons in Europe. President Putin is said to have conveyed Moscow’s expectation that the forthcoming talks would lead “to legally formulated guarantees of security” for Russia. The interaction has arguably provided a “positive background” for negotiations this month. No compromises had been reached, however.
President Biden has attempted a two-track approach; he is trying to deter Russia with specific warnings about imposing a fresh cache of sanctions that would go far beyond what the West had agreed upon on 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The new sanctions under consideration range from cutting Russia off from the system of global financial settlements to imposing new restrictions on US and Western semi-conductors, which Russia uses for the modernization of its military. Suffice it to register that Ukraine and its periphery are in ferment, and Thursday’s telephone conversation has done but little to cool things down. The outlook for 2022 is as dire as it is uncertain.