As the world braces for the possibility of former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the international community finds itself on the edge of uncertainty. The mere contemplation of a second Trump presidency sparks discussions at the World Economic Forum and raises questions about the potential seismic shifts in global dynamics. The contrast between the Biden and Trump administrations’ foreign policies looms large.
The Biden doctrine, characterised by a recalibration of America’s role in the world, faces the challenge of a chaotic global landscape with over 50 statebased conflicts ~ the highest since 1946. The attempts to re-galvanize alliances and reinforce commitments are overshadowed by the spectre of a return to Mr Trump’s transactional approach. In the event of a second Trump term, the world envisions a geopolitical landscape divided into “users,” “bruisers,” and “losers.” Traditional allies may find themselves labelled as “users,” subjected to unsentimental scrutiny of their contributions to American interests. Trade imbalances and defence spending will be under the microscope, potentially leading to threats of tariffs or withdrawal of security commitments. Countries such as Germany are already strategising to navigate this landscape.
Plans to increase defence spending and showcase financial commitments to American interests are indicative of a diplomatic dance aimed at appeasing a transactional second Trump administration. In this scenario, unconventional diplomacy, such as showering attention via royal family and sports stars, becomes a tool for some nations to curry favour. However, vulnerability extends beyond allies, reaching those considered “bruisers” or adversaries. Russia, with Mr Trump’s admiration for President Vladimir Putin, anticipates a friendlier stance, while China approaches with lowered expectations. The disruptive nature of Mr Trump’s approach offers opportunities for transformative deals but also raises the spectre of miscalculations in negotiations. The largest group, the “losers,” includes countries that are neither close allies nor adversaries. A Trump presidency might write them off, potentially leading to a further erosion of global rules on trade and human rights.
The unpredictability inherent in such an approach creates both risks and opportunities, exemplified by the Biden administration’s selective use of American power, as seen in the Afghanistan withdrawal. There is speculation on the potential abandonment of Ukraine and Taiwan, actions that could have profound consequences for America’s alliances. A failure to defend Taiwan could set a worrying precedent for other Asian allies, and abandoning Ukraine might leave Russia and Mr Putin in strengthened positions. The delicate balance of global power teeters on the decisions of the next US President. In the face of this uncertainty, the international community must prepare for a potential return of Mr Trump by developing alternative plans.
The Biden administration’s efforts to reinvent America’s role for the 2020s may face challenges and the effectiveness of its doctrine may decline as the clock ticks down to the election. Ultimately, the world is on the brink of a geopolitical shift requiring nations to adapt swiftly to an evolving global landscape.