Donald Trump has gone off at a tangent. He has taken the calculated risk of fashioning his foreign policy in unsplendid isolation. The latter-day Concert of Europe ~ pre-eminently composed of Britain, France, and Germany ~ has been remarkably swift in condemning the US President’s unilateral decision to withdraw America from the nuclear deal with Iran.
In the immediate perspective, Tehran will almost certainly have to contend with a fresh cache of sanctions. Tuesday’s decision, it needs to be underlined, was announced four days before Trump had set 12 May as the make-or-break deadline, according to his lights.
Not that the decision was wholly unexpected; in large measure it was embedded in his aversion to a momentous agreement that was inked by his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, in 2015.
He appears to have been impervious to the fact that the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, had never violated the terms of engagement; the landmark deal therefore richly deserved to be given a try… as the European powers had wanted.
Mr. Trump has resisted the overtures from European nations, not least the renewed pledges by Theresa May, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron to remain committed to the accord ~ “It is with regret and concern that we, the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, take note of President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States of America from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].”
In effect, President Trump has gone against the UN Security Council’s endorsement of the agreement through Resolution 2231, which remains the binding international legal framework for the resolution of the dispute about the Iranian nuclear programme. It is a testament to his impetuous, even illogical, conduct of foreign affairs that he has binned an agreement that had envisaged “shared security”.
For Europe and most particularly the Middle East, Trump’s unilateral pullback boils down to a concerted quest for security, almost reminiscent of French foreign policy in the inter-War years. The dynamics of geostrategy are bound to change and it would be no exaggeration to submit that the nuclear non-proliferation regime is now at stake.
“The nuclear deal with Iran is the culmination of 12 years of diplomacy. It belongs to the entire international community,” was the message to Trump from the European Union’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini. The US President has played a lone hand, and will have to countenance Europe’s “united front” in favour of preserving the pact.
As much is apparent from the European Council president, Donald Tusk’s caveat that Trump’s policies on Iran and trade “will meet a united European approach”. Russia has also let it be known that it would seek to keep the deal functioning. The nuclear deal with Iran took years to be choreographed and 12 minutes to tear up. Such misjudgments shape history as do profound thought and action. Both have been in short supply in Trump’s America.