After the public spat that President Donald Trump had with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, a few facts emerge. The American dislikes the Ukrainian intensely. Trump refused Zelenskyy’s demand, a perfectly reasonable one, that Russia pay Ukraine reparations for starting the war. President Emmanuel Macron of France declared in the White House in front of Trump that Europe has $300 billion of frozen Russian assets and those will be used to pay reparations to Ukraine. It’s also clear, and it has been for many years, that Trump and President Vladimir Putin of Russia get along fabulously.
It’s rumoured that Purtin has something on Trump, but that’s just a rumor. Trump stated during his meeting with Zelenskyy that he and Putin have been through hell together. Trump wants Zelenskyy to cede territory to Russia, but Zelenskyy, quite understandably, refuses to barter an inch. It’s also clear where the war is heading. The mighty Russian machine, of which all the Europeans and even the Americans were scared, has been stalled for three years by a brave tiny, tiny country, Ukraine. American cash and kind was flowing to Ukraine freely and without condition under President Biden.
Now Trump wants to be compensated for that aid by asking for half of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. It seems fair if the Americans are asking money for future aid, but asking for money for past support provided unconditionally is unfair. Reports suggest that the Americans have paused aid to Ukraine. They believe that without their support, Ukraine will buckle under. But that is not necessarily true. European leaders have rallied around Zelenskyy. They are rich, the Europeans, but they can appear stingy when parting with their wealth. Right now it’s only a show of European support for Zelenskyy.
Hopefully the Europeans will realize that they do not need the Americans to bolster Ukraine and provide it with arms and money. Their own security is at stake. Zelenskyy is in effect fighting Europe’s war single-handedly. What are the lessons in this situation? First, Trump wants to bully Zelenskyy into signing a deal with Russia that is massively favourable to Putin. Right now Russia has a dire shortage of men to fight the war, and so does Ukraine. Both the boxers are on their knees engaging in a slugfest. But mighty Russia is on its knees and sees an ally in Trump to coerce Zelenskyy to accept its demands.
Zelenskyy refuses to fall into the trap, which makes Trump see red. Second, a tiny nation can bring a much larger neighbour down. There are lessons for this for hawks in India who want to stomp all over Pakistan. Third, India has supported Russia by buying gazillions of inexpensive oil from it. India pretends that it has been neutral in the war, but it hasn’t been. Now India should see the dangerous path that Trump is engaged upon and say enough is enough. India says that the inexpensive Russian oil is crucial for its economy, but Pakistan hasn’t benefitted from the cheap Russian oil, and its people are bearing the consequent higher cost of living. India is the land of Gandhi, and he would never have supported an aggressor, no matter what the reason. India needs to revert to the policies that Gandhi laid down for it. India is part of the Quad, which is an alliance of four countries – the US, India, Japan, and Australia – against China.
But Trump is cozying up to President Xi Jinping of China. Trump sees the world as a group of two – the US and China, a G2 so to speak – and wants to carve the world into an American sphere of influence and a Chinese sphere of influence. No matter how much negotiation India and China indulge in, a war between the two countries never seems far away. Senior politicians in India, who should be in the know, claim that China has captured thousands of kilometers of Indian territory in the northern region of Ladakh, a charge that the Modi government and the Indian military deny. But if India gets into a war with China, will Trump respect the Quad and take the side of India or will he bend towards the Chinese? India does not covet any piece of Chinese territory; it’s the Chinese who want parts of India.
If Ukraine-Russia is an example, Trump will support the Chinese in their conflict with India. Trump wants to impose his hegemony in a large part of the world. But Zelenskyy is the sole leader in the world resisting him. European leaders and Indian leaders should take a leaf from Zelenskyy’s book, realize that Trump is in it only for himself and his friends like Putin and Xi, stop paying homage to him and stand up for themselves. Once upon a time, Europe cuddled up to a man and bought peace for that time with the Munich Agreement. Look what happened afterwards. Trump cannot be trusted and must be isolated. (The writer is an expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas.)