China is in crisis. So too are large parts of the world. Fears that the novel coronavirus might soon be identified as a global pandemic are frightfully real.
Over the past few days, there has been a surge in cases in Japan, Iran ~ where it is said to have impinged on the presidential election turnout ~ South Korea and Italy to name but a few countries. However, if the statement by the Director-General of the World Health Organisation, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is any indication, it is not a pandemic quite yet ; in that event it would have spread internationally and in an uncontrolled manner.
While some contend that this is already a pandemic in all but name, WHO is cautiously optimistic about the measures that China has adopted though there is some criticism over President Xi Jinping’s handling of the grave health crisis, the like of which the world has not suffered in recent times. If WHO has been somewhat hesitant in its usage of the term, ‘pandemic’, it largely stems from its concern over public reaction not the least because of the overwhelming ignorance about the affliction. Even if it is not “containable”, it can be slowed.
The world bears witness to a cocktail of insufficient medical knowledge, xenophobia and anxieties. “Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear,” is the warning of WHO’s Director-General. The economic impact has been tremendous, stoking fears of a possible recession yet again. Airlines have been hit, major international events are being cancelled, and companies dependent on Chinese-made components have halted production.
The word “pandemic” brings to mind the devastation of the Great Plague, the Black Death or Spanish flu. The term’s connotation is intrinsically about its spread. Spanish flu killed up to 100 million people as it swept the globe a century ago.
According to one estimate, the swine flu pandemic in 2009 killed up to 203,000 people ~ lower than the toll linked to seasonal flu in many years. The capacity of the health services and the government’s response to the outbreak are as vital in China as in all the affected countries. Outside of Wuhan, the mortality rate is much lower in the rest of China.
Other countries with poor sanitation, decrepit public health systems and malnourished populations, could pay a far higher price. India, for instance, fares poorly in all three parameters. The affliction cries out for international support, and quite the most acutely so the patient. China has shown the way by putting two hospitals in place within the span of a fortnight.
Though the structures are prefabricated, it is the speed of the operation that has been truly astounding. And given the phenomenal progress of medical science, it is fervently to be hoped that a vaccine will be developed in the not too distant future. Till Thursday afternoon, China has recorded 2715 deaths and 78,064 confirmed cases. The label of “pandemic” can only be of academic interest.