There seems to be a competition between the three potential oftencited flashpoints that could engulf the Asian region into a regional conflagration. These are the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and North Korea’s missile threats. All three are dangerous for the region.
This article shall dwell on the recent activities of North Korea, where Kim Jong-un has chosen a rather adventurous path to take the region to the precipice. In recent months, North Korea’s missile firings across its southern border as well as over Japan’s air space have caused consternation, which is accelerating at a rapid pace. As the world entered a new year, Pyongyang went on an overdrive and fired 200 artillery shells towards the South’s border island near their disputed maritime border in violation of a fragile 2018 accord.
Under the 2018 agreement, the two Koreas are required to halt live-fire exercises and aerial surveillance in the no-fly and buffer zones along their border. The firing of artillery shells near the disputed sea boundary off South Korea’s western coast prompted the South to conduct its own live-wire drills. This was the latest in the escalation of tensions between the rival neighbours. Kim Jong-un’s powerful sister and his key ally mocked the South’s ability to detect the weapon launches and threatened to launch a military strike immediately in response to any provocations.
Again, on 6 and 7 January, North Korea fired more than 60 and 90 artillery rounds respectively. The North Korean army clarified that the firings did not pose any threat to the South as the firing drills were conducted parallel to the border.
Pyongyang claimed that the artillery firings from Jangsan Cape and Deungsan Cape toward the Northern Limit Line, both in the North’s south-western coastal areas, did not cause any damage or injuries to any one from the southern side. South Korea saw this as a provocation and ordered an evacuation in the bordering Yeonpyeong Island, perhaps recalling that four South Koreans were killed when the island came under North Korean bombardment in 2010. In response, the South’s military therefore conducted a live-fire drill of its own around the north-western island.
There was no direct exchange of live fire between the Koreas, however. North Korea unilaterally scrapped the 2018 military accord in 2023. It was meant to ease front-line tensions. The latest acts of provocation came a day after a joint naval drill between South Korea and the USA had ended. In fact, tensions were brewing up since November 2023 when Pyongyang launched a spy satellite. This prompted the South to restore aerial surveillance and later the North to restore its dismantled front-line guard posts.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently stepped up his rhetorical attacks on the South and ordered his military to accelerate war preparations. Kim Jong-un’s anger is not only with the South but with the US as well. He exhorted the military to “thoroughly annihilate” the US and South Korea if provoked. He vowed to boost national defence to cope with what he called as unprecedented US-led confrontation. The toughening of stance by Kim was in response to an expansion of US-South Korean military drills.
Kim is likely to continue to step up his rhetoric and weapons tests as he believes he can use heightened tensions to wrest concessions from Washington. In late December, Kim vowed to launch three more military spy satellites, produce more nuclear materials and develop attack drones in an attempt to increase his leverage in future diplomacy with the US. He advised his army commanders urgently to sharpen “the treasured sword” to safeguard national security, in an apparent reference his country’s nuclear weapons programme.
Kim remarked that his country’s army “should deal a deadly blow to thoroughly annihilate them by mobilising all the toughest means and potentialities without moment’s hesitation if they opt for military confrontation and provocations against North Korea.” In December 2023, North Korea test-fired its most advanced Intercontinental Ballistic Missile that has the potential to reach the US, and thereby extended the record breaking number of weapons tests that year. The ICBM used solid fuel, which makes missiles easier to transport and faster to fire than liquid fuelled versions.
The December launch was the third time the North tested a solid fuel ICBM after launches in April and July, which signalled consistent efforts to improve the technology. This triggered further international condemnation. The US, South Korea and Japan all quickly condemned the missile tests as they were in breach of UNSC resolutions. Such tests made the Korean peninsula less secure.
The ICBM has a potential range of over 15,000 km, which would cover all of the US. Surprisingly, China, a close ally of North Korea, offered no direct response to these launches. Instead, it released a statement highlighting the deep trust between the two nations.
A noticeable aspect of Kim’s recent public activities is taking his young daughter Ju Ae along with him; she is believed to have been chosen by Kim as his heir. Ju Ae had been unveiled to the world more than a year ago, giving rise to speculation that she may be Kim’s eventual successor. The issue of succession in the country is the subject of intense outside speculation, especially given the regime’s secretive nature. Kim rarely ventures outside the country. In 2023, he had a rare summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Following that summit meeting, the US had accused Russia and North Korea of having entered into an arms deal, according to which Pyongyang provided Moscow with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles. Both denied this. But it soon transpired that Russia used short range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) sourced from North Korea to conduct multiple strikes against Ukraine.
The US vowed that it would raise these developments with the UNSC. According to UNSC resolutions, approved with Russian support, countries are barred from trading military equipment with North Korea. This has been termed by the US and allies as “significant and concerning escalation”.
The US announced that it would impose additional sanctions against those facilitating the arms deals. From all possible indicators, the North Korean leader is not expected to yield to any pressure or sanctions and will not bargain his “treasure” for any offer of candy.
RAJARAM PANDA The writer is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library (PMML), New Delhi. Earlier he was ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, and Senior Fellow at the MP-IDSA, New Delhi