Whether the 42-year-old, Harvard educated Pita Limjaroenrat becomes Thailand’s Prime Minister or not may still be in the realm of conjecture, given the country’s complex constitutional provisions. But the outcome of the country’s general election makes certain things clear.
First, Thailand has overwhelmingly rejected military backed political dispensations, having decimated incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s United Thai Nation party; it won 36 of the 500 seats on offer, and not even the powerful military may be able to come to his rescue. Second, with a record turnout, Thailand’s voters have sought decisive changes in the way they are governed. But Mr.
Pita’s ascension to the top job hinges on several factors. His Move Forward party, which claimed 151 seats, was by far the biggest winner in the election, but will need the support of other parties to have a credible chance to form government. Mr. Pita is learnt to have received an assurance of support from the Phue Thai party led by Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra which came in second with 141 seats, and has said he is in talks to put together a five-party coalition that will together have more than 300 MPs.
While that is enough to secure a majority in the lower house, the country’s Prime Minister is chosen by the 500 MPs and 250 Senators, and the latter group is made up entirely of members nominated by the military. This means that a potential leader will have to secure the support of at least 376 members, a daunting task given that Move Forward’s agenda calls for rewriting the country’s constitution, a change in lese majeste laws and dilution of the powers of the military. This will mean Mr. Pita will have to water down commitments made in his manifesto and reach accommodations that are acceptable to his alliance partners.
That is not the only challenge he faces; an investigation into his ownership of shares in a media company is underway and an adverse outcome could lead to disqualification. The election outcome must have surprised Ms. Shinawatra, a daughter and niece of two former Prime Ministers who was projected by pollsters to be in pole position. While her Phue Thai party did not get a majority of the seats, largely because Move Forward’s pledge to bring about sweeping reforms struck a chord with young, urban voters (the party won 32 of 33 seats in Bangkok), it has done well in its traditional strongholds in rural Thailand.
The election outcome will make it very difficult for the powerful Thai establishment, comprising the monarchy and the military, to resist calls for change that provoked youth-led pro-democracy protests two years ago, and sought curbs on the powers of the monarch and cuts in his spending. But the military has intervened in the political process in the past, and Thailand’s voters must hope it does not choose to do so again.