High drama has unfolded in the Rajasthan Congress this week. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot are at loggerheads again. The power tussle between the two started in 2018, first over party tickets and later over the chief minister’s position.
Gehlot wants to keep his job, and Pilot wants to grab it immediately. In a catch-22 situation, Congress is still dithering on whether to face the electorate with Gehlot as the Chief Minister or the rebel Pilot instead. Congress and BJP have been alternating in Government, and now it is the turn of the BJP to win the elections.
Congress desperately needs to retain the big state in the Assembly polls later this year. Pilot had rebelled twice. In 2020, he led a revolt with the tacit support of the BJP with 20 of his legislators; the one-month-long political crisis ended after the Congress high command promised to look into the issues raised by him.
The second time was in September 2022, when the Gehlot camp consisting of 90 MLAs submitted resignation letters to prevent Pilot from succeeding Gehlot. This was when Gehlot was offered the party chief’s position. Since he wanted to be both chief minister and party president and this was not possible, he rejected the party post.
Once again, the High command intervened and quietened the warring factions. But Pilot thinks it is now or never as time is running out. If Pilot misses the boat, his next shot would be in 2028.
Last week, he announced a dharna and accused the Gehlot government of failing to act against the excise mafia, illegal mining, land encroachment, or the Lalit Modi affidavit case. He complained that Gehlot had been reluctant to act against the predecessor Vasundhara Raje-led Government. Incidentally, Raje (BJP) quietly helped Gehlot to win the confidence vote in 2020. Pilot is young, charismatic, ambitious, articulate, and sophisticated. He is also close to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi.
However, he is a rebel, impatient, and ambitious. There is speculation that Pilot is ready to form a new outfit. Gehlot is 71, and wants to ask the electorate for one last chance. If disturbed now, he will break the party like last year. The options before Congress are few.
One is to counsel patience to Pilot. He has chosen corruption as an issue this time. But when Rahul Gandhi is spearheading the attack on corruption, how can it stop Pilot? Moreover, with few young leaders left, Pilot’s departure could hurt Congress before the polls. Alienating Gehlot also will have repercussions. He has shown many times that he is a man in control. It will be an acid test for the sixmonth-old Congress chief Mallikharjun Kharge amid the Karnataka Assembly polls. In March 2023, he was toying with the idea of making Pilot the state party chief, which would have soothed him but upset Gehlot.
But some say Kharge is waiting for the Karnataka elections to conclude. With pretty good chances of winning the state, he could deal with both leaders from a position of strength. One option is to convince Gehlot to step down for the sake of the party. Gehlot has been the chief minister twice earlier and is an experienced leader from the OBC community.
On the minus side, he is an aging leader, lacks charisma, and indulges in factionalism. He also faces anti-incumbency. Ultimately, it will depend on the party’s high command to find an acceptable formula for both warring groups. But this is easier said than done. Annoying either leader would result in a setback. Congress leadership has little time to dither.
The first and foremost step is to quieten the warring camps. The Congress has roped in veteran Kamal Nath to mediate between the two sides. Secondly, the High Command should act swiftly. Keeping the crisis unaddressed will result in further chaos. It might also affect the party’s chances in Karnataka. Thirdly, Kharge should ensure Rajasthan is not messed up as they did in Punjab by backing the wrong horse last year and losing the state.
Fourthly, Gehlot may listen to Sonia Gandhi but she has already stepped back. Rahul Gandhi could persuade Pilot, but what would be his formula? Moving Pilot to Delhi to give organisational responsibilities was one of the options, but Pilot would not be satisfied. Kamal Nath has reportedly offered Pilot a ‘meaty’ role in the AICC secretariat, a member of the Congress Working Committee, and a vital role in the screening committee for the upcoming Rajasthan elections.
Congress needs to tread carefully, as any misstep would mean losing Rajasthan. It will need all its mediating skills to resolve the issue at a time when it needs to win and not lose.