The U.S. President made Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistani delegation incredibly gleeful when he promised the moon to them. The July 22 meeting between Donald Trump and Khan was more substantive then just a formal diplomatic and working interaction.
The US President even promised to consider resuming military assistance that he himself had cut off in early 2018 after blaming Pakistan of playing a double game in Afghanistan. He even talked of enhancing the bilateral trade between the US and Pakistan 20 times. He praised Khan to the skies, calling him the most popular leader in Pakistan and describing the people of Pakistan as ‘fantastic’ and their products as the very best.
The fact is that he promised a dream-list presumably in return for what he expects Pakistan to deliver in Afghanistan, in the ongoing negotiations (seven rounds so far) between US Representative Zalmay Khalilzad – an Afghanistan-born US Diplomat and Afghan Taliban representatives led by Mullah Baradar in Doha, Qatar. President Trump wants Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to talk to the Kabul government on the future shape of governance in Afghanistan so that U.S. troops could finally withdraw from the country. Perhaps Trump wants Imran to get the Taliban to end the ongoing violence to pave the way for a peaceful conclusion of the war.
He needs Pakistan’s help in ending the longest American war. Pakistan wants the resumption of aid, and more importantly the resumption of the good old friendship between the two countries rooted in mutual trust. On the issue of resumption of the Coalition Support Fund (CSF), the US President did not hold out any assurance. On the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), he did not offer any real intervention that could help Pakistan, even though there is hope that the US will support Pakistan after Islamabad began taking steps to firmly deal with the militant outfits based in the country.
Only then would Trump probably consider turning the promises he made on July 22 into concrete actions. It is pertinent of mention that Khan and his country need to be wary of the end-game’s adverse impact, if any, on Pakistan. The 72-year-long history of Pakistan-US relations tells us that the US has wooed Pakistan whenever it needed them to promote its global agenda in the region and once that was achieved, Washington ignored Islamabad with alacrity. Nations, especially superpowers have to watch their national interests and not bother for small factotums and their agendas.
Field Marshal Ayub Khan who signed the CENTO and SEATO pacts with the US in the mid-1950s for helping keep Soviet communism from entering the region, was the darling of Washington until he realized the friendship was one-sided, which made a disillusioned Ayub write a book appropriately titled “Friends, not masters”. After the CIA — with the help of the Pakistani ISI and Afghan Mujahedeen — succeeded in defeating the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, Washington simply walked away leaving the entire mess on Pakistan.
The senior President Bush had invoked the Pressler Amendment in the early 1990s and denounced Pakistan for crossing the ‘nuclear red-line’. When Pakistan attacked India in Kargil, which proved to be a misadventure, the USA played its role. The testing of nuclear devices invoked the Glenn Amendment and ended the decade with sanctions for the 19 October 1999 military take over. The Pakistan establishment mishandled the situation by supporting Taliban, terrorist groups and sending them to Afghanistan.
They ended up getting ostracized and being called an “International Migraine”. The US lost an estimated 1 Trillion dollars and almost 3,300 soldiers. The future shape of events can only be speculated on. What would be the shape of things in case the US suddenly withdraws its troops from Afghanistan? Would it not lead to difficult times for President Ghani’s government? Would it withstand the Pakistan Establishment (Army & ISI) supported Taliban? At present it (Taliban) is headed by Hibatullah Akhundzada, Mohammed Rasul, Mullah Baradar and Sirajuddin Haqqanni.
The former Pakistan High Commissioner to India, Aziz Ahmed Khan, assists them (Taliban) in their negotiations with US President’s representative Zalmay Khalilzad. The latest weapons, logistics, intelligence and guidance to Taliban are provided by the Pakistani Establishment. Many retired soldiers of the Frontier Force Regiment and Pakistani Army are a part of the 50,000-strong Taliban forces fighting the US and President’s Ghani’s Afghan National Army. The future of Afghanistan and President Ghani’s government has become precarious after this meeting and President Trump’s announcement.
Though the animated gestures show some progress in the environment, however the reality remains that Taliban is conscious of the fact that they are much more efficaciously organised and better trained nay armed then the Afghanistan National Army in which there is a conspicuous presence of ex-Northern Alliance soldiers and commanders and Uzbek and Hazara fighters. The Taliban has little incentive to make major concessions and negotiate with Ghani’s government whom it considers as a US protégé.
President Ghani too is understandably discouraged by Trump’s statement that the US options in Afghanistan either involve killing millions of people or relying on Pakistan to extricate itself. There is plausible fear in Kabul that faced with a failure to reach a political settlement; Trump might simply pull out of Afghanistan altogether in which case Taliban could make survival difficult for the present government in Kabul. There are reasons to believe that this is not a non-feasible option.
President Trump campaigned with the electoral message of “Promises made, promises kept”. The ending of the 18- year-long war in Afghanistan remains a key unfulfilled promise. The coming months could witness a surprise announcement about beginning of US troops withdrawal. Such a step – with neither political arrangements nor security contingencies to prevent the return of a violent regime – would be disastrous for the country and the region.
At present there are around 16,000 US troops and almost a similar number of US Private Security Personnel who are all ex-trained soldiers and marines. How much the Taliban and its cardinal and perennial supporter, the Pakistani Establishment, will allow this US initiative to succeed only time will tell. Afghans, unfortunately have no say in this
(The writer is a senior IAS officer of the Punjab cadre)