The world’s eyes will be on Taiwan over the next six months as the country goes to the polls in January 2024 to elect its new leader. While the vote is going to be consequential, it is unlikely to be existential. Writing for the Centre for Strategic and Security Studies, leading China scholars Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass point out that just as Taiwan will not rush to embrace unification with the mainland if the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) wins neither would China automatically invade Taiwan if the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party emerges victorious. Taiwanese voters have demonstrated themselves to be consistently moderate in their preferences on cross-strait issues, and the latest opinion polls confirm that a large majority of citizens favour some variation of the current status quo. Taiwan’s political parties are, therefore, forced to negotiate this reality which compels both parties to rein in their more extreme voices to prevent losing the middle ground.
The international community, particularly the USA, is expected to come to Taiwan’s defence if Beijing attempts reunification using military force. But Washington would be well-advised to be careful about how it is viewed in the campaign months ahead. Eight years of the globally well-regarded President Tsai Ing-wen’s regime has certainly resulted in Taipei being less cowed down by the coercive and intimidatory actions of the Peoples’ Republic of China. But that should not be mistaken for majority support for Taiwan’s independence. American lawmakers such as the Chairperson of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Congressman Michael McCaul, recently categorised one of Taiwan’s leading presidential candidates from the KMT as a “Beijing-installed puppet candidate.” Similarly, Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton has said that “blowing up” Taiwan’s leading semiconductor fabrication plant, TSMC, is an “interesting idea” to deter China. These are not helpful statements for the Taiwanese people. They also undermine Taiwan’s democratic process at a time when its integrity will matter the most, as Blanchette and Hass iterate. It is in the interest of the global rules-based order that Taiwan’s hard-won democratic system, premised on a competitive multiparty system and the will of its population, prevails.
Whether the end result suits the PRC or the USA is not the issue. In fact, a main cause for the wariness and suspicion of the PRC among the Taiwanese people is the blatant bullying by Beijing; Washington does not want to go down that road if it wants America not be viewed with similar disdain. No self-respecting nation will stand for its election to be influenced by a foreign power. The brouhaha over Russia’s attempts to influence the 2016 and the 2020 US presidential polls has still not died down. Why, then, would Taiwan accept attempts to back a party or a candidate by the USA?