My waiting period for the election results this time is limited to just 2-plus days because the polling in the constituency where I vote is set for June 1. But this time, the nation’s electorate as a whole has to wait anywhere from two days to six and a half weeks to find out the outcome. How excruciating is this kind of anxiety, I wonder? Well, Mother Jones’ editor-in-chief Clara Jeffery described the collective anxiety of the American electorate in the context of the 2020 US presidential elections by saying, “The entire country is awaiting a biopsy result.” Furthermore, although it takes a bit longer to count the ballots in the US, recall that no one had to wait more than six weeks for counting.
Yes, it can be stressful to wait for the results of an election, especially if you are more politically conscious than the average person. The stress or anxiety can be described in a variety of ways, though. For instance, Charlie Warzel wrote the following in a New York Times article on 2 November 2020, against the backdrop of the US presidential election, as people anxiously awaited the results: “Right now you probably feel like a spring that’s been tightly compressed under enormous weight. From the outside, it appears still. Inside it is coursing with intense potential (anxious!) energy just dying for release.”
Let’s hear it from someone who studies the psychology of waiting. She is Kate Sweeny, a psychology professor at the University of California, Riverside (UCR), in the USA. In a 2020 media interview, Professor Sweeny remarked, “I joked with my friends that I wished someone would, like, knock me over the head on election morning and wake me up when the decision is made.” But is everyone feeling the same level of anxiety? Perhaps not. There is some intriguing research that links anxiety to election results, mostly in an American setting. For instance, Sweeny’s research revealed that while many people were understandably scarred by the surprise results of the 2016 election, the 2020 contest didn’t feel the same as it did four years earlier, regardless of the result. In 2016, Sweeny and her team conducted a study evaluating the anxiety levels of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s supporters.
A month from Election Day, both sides were dead, even in their worry about the outcome. As Election Day drew nearer, those who were most anxious were Trump supporters. In a 2019 paper published in the journal Motivation and Emotion, Sweeny and UCR graduate student Kyle Rankin surveyed 699 Americans who voted in the 2016 US presidential election and 376 voters who voted in the 2018 midterm elections. They discovered that voters who thought the election was more significant, who were more politically involved, and who thought waiting was tough in general expressed greater concern about the outcome of the vote. Curiously, there was no discernible correlation between an individual’s degree of media exposure and increased anxiety.
Sweeny examined a new, relevant group of voters of 446 people in 2020 who cast ballots in the presidential election; 242 of them supported Democrat Joe Biden, 182 supported the incumbent President Donald Trump, and 22 supported a third party. And the outcomes had been reversed. Supporters of Biden were significantly more anxious about the result than those of Trump in 2020. Nonetheless, as one might comprehend, there was a significant confounding factor in 2020. It’s no secret that many Americans were additionally tense during the 2020 elections due to the interruptions to daily living caused by the Covid-19 outbreak and worried about their future. I came across another interesting analysis regarding the US presidential elections of 2020 and 2016.
In October 2020, the American Psychological Association offered advice for managing election stress ahead of the 2020 elections. The headline of their analysis and recommendation was “2020 Presidential Election A Source Of Significant Stress For More Americans Than 2016 Presidential Race.” According to a Harris Poll survey done on behalf of the American Psychological Association, more than two-thirds of American adults (68 per cent) said that the 2020 presidential election, perhaps the most divisive American election in decades, was a significant source of stress in their lives, up significantly from 52 per cent who said the same during the 2016 election.
According to the survey, the majority of respondents – 76 per cent of Democrats, 67 per cent of Republicans, and 64 per cent of Independents – said that the election was a major source of stress, regardless of their political affiliation. But, again, while talking about the 2020 scenario, it is important to remember that it was a year unlike any other in recent memory. In addition to being in the midst of the pandemic of the century, Americans were also experiencing growing animosity and division throughout the presidential race. Racial unrest, an unstable economy, and climate change, which had exacerbated extensive wildfires and other natural disasters, were other factors.
As a result, Americans were experiencing mental and physical health stress due to a build-up of pressures. So, it might be difficult to enumerate the exact effect of electionrelated anxiety in 2020. However, upon examining these studies within the American context, I found myself wondering if any similar research is being conducted in India to determine which political parties’ supporters are experiencing higher levels of anxiety at the moment. Or any thorough investigation to comprehend people’s anxiety during the electoral process, especially during the interval between casting a ballot and waiting for the outcome. Is research also being conducted to determine the number of voters who voted in Phase 1 or 2, but would have chosen a different party had they cast their ballots later (in Phase 6 or 7, for instance)? Or someone casting a ballot at a later phase feeling that she would have voted for any other party had she voted in an earlier phase?
And is there anyone who cast a ballot in Phase 1 and doesn’t feel nearly any anxiety and forgot who she voted for? How is the waiting, be it short, medium, or long? What is the situation with the candidates (who stand a chance of winning), party workers, and the common electorate – both devoted followers and swing voters? And for those who chose not to cast a ballot? How does it stand for various social groups? How is it going for both regular business people and industry titans? Regarding the stock market, what? What relevance does it have to the global community? Is Elon Musk, for example, waiting eagerly to schedule a meeting with the Prime Minister of India shortly after the election results? And are certain resort operators crossing their fingers? But for that, a close result is a must, perhaps. In general, you can’t ignore the tension associated with waiting. For example, not only do students who write significant exams, but their parents and other family members also eagerly await the results.
Waiting for the EVM counts, like most other waiting scenarios, includes two uncomfortable states: powerlessness and uncertainty, although the nature and goal of the waiting may differ. These are all incredibly uncomfortable feelings. When you combine them, it feels excruciating, like you’re strapped into a roller coaster that is going up a hill, and you are powerless to stop it. Simply keep your fingers crossed. (The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.)