With one more round of talks having failed, and with all hopes now pinned on a final meeting ~ as yet unscheduled ~ between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the next few days ~ Europe and Britain must brace for a no-deal Brexit at the end of the year.
Both sides accept that the many rounds of talks have failed to resolve differences, the latest on Monday having caused the European side to say that negotiations were going backwards while the British believe there is every chance they would not be able to secure a deal.
The sticking points remain what they have been for some time ~ fishing rights in British waters, fair competition for companies and ways to resolve future disputes, the last of these an ironic reflection on the hash that negotiators have made of solving the present differences.
Britain left the EU on January 31 and has been in transition thereafter with existing rules in place until the end of the year. The costs of a no-deal Brexit could be enormous, with some analysts pointing at a drop in Britain’s GDP of between 1.5 and 2 percentage points.
But it is the impact on people who have got used to seamless movement and trade within Europe that will be felt first. Living and working on either side of the English Channel will be affected, and as some analysts have pointed out, taking one’s dog across from one side to the other could become challenging.
Once Britain leaves Europe’s Customs Union, trade would be subject to WTO rules while tariffs and quotas would become the norm. London faces the risk of losing its place as Europe’s pre-eminent financial centre, as access will be guided by the EU judging the UK’s rules to be equivalent to its own in 40 areas.
Businesses moving goods would need to prepare for long queues at border checkpoints. Other impacts are likely to be felt insofar as adhering to separate sets of standards for goods is concerned; immigration controls; passport validities and restrictions on the services sector.
In the event Mr Johnson and Ms van der Leyen can reach agreement ~ however unlikely it may seem at this time ~ the deal would need ratification by the two parliaments, which will pose scheduling challenges as the Christmas break approaches.
While analysts believe that the two leaders might be able to resolve differences on fishing rights, the real challenge will be posed by the European demand that it be allowed to unilaterally hit back if Britain deviates from EU environmental, labour and social standards or enforces state subsidies in the future. Britain believes these are tactics to apply EU rules via the backdoor.
One school of thought believes that both sides are taking matters to the absolute brink to ensure that as the consequences of a no-deal Brexit sink in, people will accept any deal, even one that does not wholly address the concerns of either side.