Vladimir Putin put in his papers after sixteen years in the shadowy Soviet spy agency, KGB, on the second day of the 1991 coup attempt against the-then enfeebled Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev. The turn of events, capitulation of the Soviet State, and the perceived humiliation led the yet-to-be-famous spymaster to recollect coldly, “As soon as the coup began, I immediately decided which side I was on.”
The decade before the disintegration of the USSR was consumed by the Cold War’s Great Game in Afghanistan, pitting the US-Pakistan duo against the Soviets. Putin, as the rising star in KGB ranks in that formative era with its fabled tact of Maskirovka (Russian Military Doctrine of Deception) had cut his teeth in understanding the ‘enemy’, as it were. Deaths of 15,000 Russians and over 60,000 wounded ~ including 333 helicopters and 118 Soviet planes at the hands of Pakistan-trained and supplied antiaircraft guns and Stinger missiles is something that would be etched in Putin’s subliminal psyche.
The most credibly suspected role of the KGB in the air crash carrying the Pakistani President Zia-ul-Haq, US Ambassador to Pakistan and several others, after logically ruling out other likely suspects like Mossad, RAW, Pakistani opposition etc. (ultimately confirmed by Col Sergei Tretyakov, KGB defector to US), signifies the bad blood between Moscow and Islamabad. Cut to 2022, Putin has matured and wised up to the necessities of realpolitik, after being in power one way or the other, uninterruptedly, since 1999.
To understand Putin’s professional DNA, it is important to remember, that his last official post before the leadership role was that of the Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the erstwhile KGB. Putin’s first public trial was the management of the Chechen Islamist insurgency, and he was relentless, brutal and uncompromising, in squashing the same. Putin had tellingly talked of all those who “cynically exploit religious feelings for political aims”. This statement suggests how a Putin would view a country like Pakistan, which is internationally accepted as the foremost fount of religious extremism for political purposes.
Putin would have firsthand known of Islamabad’s pernicious role in Afghanistan and Chechnya (where, too, Pakistan remained a moral-material supporter of Islamist insurgency). However, tectonic churns in the geopolitical and geostrategic evolution of the 21st century have led to new dynamics and necessities that are required for counterbalancing.
Green shoots of the same emerged with the proclamation of a ‘strategic partnership’ between Moscow and Beijing in April 1996. Both countries were smarting from the perceived humiliation of having been done in by the Americans. Soviet ‘superpower’ had just disintegrated embarrassingly, and the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-96 was irking the Chinese leadership ~ an entente or quasi-alliance between Moscow and Beijing was floated, that tactically overlooked many historical and lingering undercurrents between the two suspicious powers.
Despite many hiccups, it played out reasonably in the Middle Eastern swathes, Afghanistan, and in Asia-Pacific waters with joint displeasure expressed by both at QUAD (Quadrilateral agreement with US, India, Japan and Australia) and AKUS (Alliance between US, UK and Australia). This brewing relationship between Moscow and Beijing also impacted the vassal states of the respective countries to posture accordingly ~ Moscow brought many pliant strongmen-led Central Asian Republics to the table while Beijing brought its ‘all-weather-friend’ in Islamabad to the party.
With the concurrent relationship between Washington DC and Islamabad hitting rock bottom (helped by the cozying-up between Delhi and Washington DC), it was only a matter of time before the internationally isolated Pakistan looked towards Moscow as a strategic counterpoise. In such times of ‘show of strength’, the master-practitioner of realpolitik i.e., Putin, will readily book his profits with Pakistani overtures, for now.
To tease geopolitical equations, Russia under Putin and Pakistan have been holding military exercises and drills for the past few years ~ whilst Moscow has simultaneously ensured the sensitive handling and sharing of technological, military, diplomatic and strategic wherewithal with Delhi. But the socio-economic diplomatic desperation in Islamabad is so grave that it latches on to any opportunity to suggest its relevance and bargaining power on the global stage.
Russia is in the midst of a violent situation in Ukraine and is counting on showcasing supporters for its aggressive position, and the overenthusiastic Imran Khan, is desperately waving his acquiescence. Like with China, where Pakistan displays acute amnesia in terms of its commitment to co-religionists in Uyghurs ~ the same ignobility will be extended to the Chechen cause with the Russians now.
The shrewd Putin will take it for now for his own immediate reasons, but as former Afghan Vice President and spymaster Amrullah Saleh warned Pakistan (in a different context, but one borne of similarity with Putin), “Spies never quit” or forget. For now, Imran Khan is making the first Pakistani leadership visit in over two decades and the timing is ominous and seemingly deliberate. While both countries have publicly committed to tackle religious extremism under the aegis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ~ wily Putin who is well-versed with the background games that countries play would know better about Islamabad.
Overplaying the Russian hand on Ukraine could have debilitating economic consequences for Islamabad, as even the Chinese are carefully calibrating their own stance to assert that Ukraine’s sovereignty should be “respected and safeguarded”. While optics of taking on the Americans makes for muscular politics for the beleaguered Imran Khan, who is struggling to stitch together a compelling justification for his own leadership, overenthusiasm in politics, as has been his wont, could be disastrous personally, politically, and for Pakistan.
As for Putin, as the Deputy Director of the Asia Program at Wilson Centre noted presciently, “Putin may try to goad him into saying something about Ukraine. Hopefully Khan doesn’t take the bait”. But by ensuring his physical presence in such tense times, Imran Khan has set himself up for awkwardness. He will get internationally excoriated if he does say something and will be dealt with coldly, if he tries to be too smart with Putin, in his presence. To repeat Saleh’s warning ~ Spies never quit, forget, or even forgive.
(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd) and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)