In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made two significant overseas visits, first to North Korea where he signed a landmark security treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and then to Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest growing economies and one of the most diplomatically active countries in the 21st century. All this was before he hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit meeting back at home. This article shall discuss the significance of Putin’s visit to Vietnam and what it conveyed to the world. In recent times, Vietnam that was once isolated because of its ideological positioning, is diplomatically very active and has made an impact of relevance to the world. For a long time, the West had a jaundiced view about Vietnam and saw it as pariah state. But it has leapfrogged to the position of one of Asia’s fastest growing economies and upgraded relations with Japan, Australia and India. Many of these countries including India have prioritised the bolstering of economic and security cooperation with Hanoi. Hanoi upgraded relations with key global actors such as the US and Japan in 2023, and with Australia in early 2024. This was a clear demonstration that its influence on the world stage has increased. By welcoming Putin, was Hanoi trying to make a point to endorse the view that it remains a priority to Russia over any other country? The answer to this question can be both Yes and No. The fact is that with its achievements in multilateral relationships and neutral foreign policy and expanding the web of international relations, Hanoi was aiming to bail out Russia from the eyes of the world as a diplomatic pariah state, a perception that has existed since Putin came to power. What the world noted keenly was that it was Putin’s first visit to a Southeast Asian country since the war in Ukraine broke out. Already under Western sanctions because of military operations in Ukraine and by choosing to visit Vietnam, Putin intended to send a clear message to the West that Russia continues to remain relevant in global affairs and cannot be isolated. The visit however did not yield any significant agreements for Hanoi. Discussions focused more on expanding economic cooperation rather than on security issues. Viewed differently, with the frayed ties with China over the South China Sea issue, Hanoi choose to lean towards Russia as a counterbalance measure and accorded Putin a 21-gun salute, thereby endorsing the perception that Russia remains a priority in Vietnam’s foreign policy. One cannot miss the timing and associated symbolism of Putin’s decision to visit Vietnam at this time when the world’s major powers see Russia with suspicious eyes. Of course, India stands altogether differently and refused to join the sanctions imposed by the West. India has chosen to conduct its relations with Russia keeping in mind its national interests. After all, India has a special relationship with Russia historically and that cannot be undone easily. Prime Minister Modi’s visit further strengthens this time-tested bonding. Russia holds the BRICS chairmanship for 2024 and is going to host the summit meeting in October. Since there are talks about BRICS expansion and some of the members of the Asean bloc have evinced interest in joining the grouping, Putin was probably keen to send a message of support for Hanoi’s potential membership aspirations. Vietnam has not yet openly expressed keenness to join the BRICS but is now studying the possibilities. It may be noted that prior to Putin’s visit, a Vietnamese delegation visited Russia to attend the BRICS Plus dialogue. Sooner or later, Vietnam will see the advantage for itself if it joins BRICS. Since Vietnam prioritises dealing with multilateral diplomatic institutions and advocates a multipolar world order with a view to strengthen economic ties with growing economies, joining the BRICS fold shall provide additional heft to its aspirations to be a responsible player in world affairs. Vietnam’s conduct of foreign policy finds resonance with that of India. Like India, it has dealt with its relations with Russia, especially the war with Ukraine, deftly by maintaining neutrality, while nurturing its ties with both the US and Russia at the same level. For Vietnam, stress on Asean centrality has helped it in navigating through geopolitical struggle and remain relevant in regional diplomacy. Vietnam is convinced that it needs to adhere to Asean centrality and remain engaged with all major powers. Such an approach will be in compliance with Vietnam’s current foreign policy approach in which geopolitical rivalry among major powers can be kept at a distance. There is a new twist to the meeting if seen in the context of Vietnam-China tensions over the South China Sea. Putin agreed for Russia-Vietnam joint oil exploration in areas that fall within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), something akin to what India’s ONGC’s overseas wing has been doing. As Russian companies operate in Vietnam’s EEZ, which lies within Beijing’s self-proclaimed 10-dash line, Moscow tacitly supports Vietnam’s sovereignty claims in the disputed South China Sea. No wonder, Putin signed more deals to further Russia-Vietnam cooperation on oil and gas exploration, which could irk Beijing. At the same time, a strong message was sent out by expressing a commitment to ensure “security, safety, freedom of navigation and aviation” in and over the South China Sea. Vietnam is aware that China is not likely to back-track on its position in the South China Sea so easily. Vietnam too is unlikely to yield space easily. Its diplomatic profile has grown and it has friends to back upon. So, China runs the risk of remaining isolated and cannot be expected to have an easy ride. Hanoi is aware that China shall remain a top concern because of its hardened position in the South China Sea. For Vietnam, besides its own sovereignty issue, ensuring maritime security remains at the top of its agenda. Does Putin’s visit indicate that Russia would come to Vietnam’s rescue if a conflict breaks out between China and Vietnam? That is a million dollar question for which there is no easy answer. In such a situation, while Russia is unlikely to overtly support Vietnam in case a crisis breaks out in the South China Sea in order not to openly confront China, it can potentially play a pacifying role in ChineseVietnamese tensions.
(The writer is former Senior Fellow, PMML, Ministry of Culture, Government of India, New Delhi)