After North Korea rattled the world in 2017 with nuclear tests and a series of ballistic missile launches, the peace-wind seems to be blowing in the Korean Peninsula since the beginning of 2018.
The world is taking notice of these developments with hope.The year started with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un talking about his readiness for a dialogue with South Korea in his New Year address.
This was followed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s invitation to the North Korean leader to send a delegation of athletes to participate in the Winter Olympics Games that South Korea was hosting in Pyeongchang in February.
North Korea responded positively and sent not only the athletes but a sizable number of cheerleaders. South Korea covered their travel costs. The world took notice when participants from both South and North Koreas marched together at the inauguration ceremony under a common Unification Flag.
Kim Jong-un even sent his sister to attend the inaugural. She was the first member of the Kim family who ever travelled to South Korea.
Ever since Kim assumed power after his father’s death in 2011, he has been busy consolidating his power-base through ruthless means such as purges and executions of those suspected to have conveyed the message to the people that he is in total control of the country.
When his sister Kim Yo-jong landed in Seoul, she was not only received with diplomatic courtesy by President Moon; but was invited for lunch at the Presidential Blue House, during which she handed over a personal letter from her brother to Moon expressing the desire for a summit meeting.
President Moon lost no time in sending a 10-member delegation led by Chung Eui-yong, head of the National Security Office, to Pyongyang to discuss the next step with Kim Jong-un.
After the delegation’s return, the news started surfacing that there will be a summit meeting between Moon and Kim in late April, details of which are yet to be spelt out.
Moon then sent Chung to Washington to brief President Donald Trump about this development. It was here that Chung announced Kim’s readiness for a summit with Trump. Making a huge diplomatic gamble, Trump immediately said, ‘Yes’. The tentative time for the summit was announced to be ‘by May”.
The prospect for two summits in succession is huge news for the region and the world. There are several uncertainties, however. Moon also sent other officials to Japan to apprise Prime Minister Abe Shinzo about the development. Chung also travelled to China and Russia to brief both countries about these developments.
There are several imponderables in the process. Though the most likely venue for the Moon-Kim summit shall be the Demilitarised Zone peace village of Panmunjom, there is no clarity about the Trump-Kim summit.
Neither is there any information about the agenda, the key officials to be involved in the preparation, the conditions each side would put on the table and many others. There are several ifs and buts and even speculation on how the two summits would go ahead and what could be the possible outcome. Some conjectures could, however, be made.
Trump seems to be upbeat but unrelenting at the same time on maintaining his stance that the denuclearisation issue ought to top the agenda. There is no clarity if Kim would be willing.
But the summit provides a great opportunity; if it succeeds, it could be the biggest deal and if it fizzles out without an agreement, the future course could be more damaging than the present.
That means more nuclear and missile tests by North Korea and more severe action by the US and the allies, thereby heightening of tensions more than the present.
For people in his own administration and the White House, Trump’s decision was shocking. The move abruptly reversed decades of US policy aimed at preventing North Korea from developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Based on what Chung informed him, Trump announced that North Korea had agreed to not conduct another missile test until after proposed meetings had taken place. North Korea has not conducted a missile test since 28 November 2017. Pyongyang issued no such assurance.
At another time, Trump warned that no summit would be convened unless Pyongyang took “concrete actions” over its nuclear programme. At the same time, he observed that leaders of China and Japan were supportive of the potential dialogue but made no attempt to clear confusion over the preconditions and timing of the talks.
Trump’s latest stance is a complete turnaround to his position in 2017 when he exchanged bellicose insults and diatribes with Kim over the latter’s claim to have developed a nuclear weapon put atop a missile capable of hitting the US.
Pyongyang has defied the UN Security Council resolutions and continued to pursue developing lethal nuclear capability. Some analysts on the Korean issue have warned that North Korea could buy time to build up and refine its nuclear arsenal if it drags out of talks with Washington. They paint the emerging picture as a false dawn and Kim’s strategy to trap Trump off-guard.
Moon is not the one to give up. After the Chung-led delegation returned from Pyongyang, he sent Chung to brief Trump in Washington. After his return, Moon sent Chung to brief Xi Jinping in China. The spy agency chief Suh Hoon, accompanied by one of Chung’s deputies, Nam Gwan-pyo, went to Japan to speak with Abe Shinzo.
While the truce village of Panmunjom is the likely venue for the first inter-Korean summit in more than a decade in late April, there is no clarity about the venue for Trump-Kim summit. Neither is Trump likely to visit Pyongyang, nor would Kim agree to travel to Washington.
The same truce village of Panmunjom could be the appropriate venue. Other locations being proposed for the Trump-Kim summit include Switzerland, Sweden and the South Korean resort island of Jeju. Kim has never stepped out of North Korea even once, not even to China, either for fear of assassination or a coup at home during his absence.
There are a lot of uncertainties at the moment. It is possible that the much-hyped Trump-Kim summit may even never happen. If it takes place, this could be the biggest news of this century. The likely outcome remains in the realm of the unknown.
The writer is ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan. Views expressed are personal and not that of the ICCR or the Government of India.