Parlour and the Prince

Last Wednesday’s palace coup of sorts in Saudi Arabia carries a distinct message to the world ~ the 81-year-old King Salman is intent on settling the line of succession within his immediate family. Hence the elevation of his son, Mohammed bin Salman. Hence also the ouster of his nephew, the crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef. By confirming his 31-year-old son as heir, the King seeks to consolidate the desert kingdom’s move to reassert its influence as a regional power. The timing of the royal decree ~ shortly after midnight ~ was rather unusual, and is said to have stunned the Saudi establishment, which had expected Nayef to take over at the appropriate juncture, helming a strategic country in a turbulent swathe of the world. Alone among the big powers, President Trump called Bin Salman to congratulate him on his “recent elevation”. It may be purely coincidental that the change of guard has been announced in the aftermath of the US President’s visit to Riyadh. Markedly, Bin Salman is reckoned by the White House as a “solid ally” and the king can be said to have initiated a calculated move. The telephone interaction was critical in itself, if the White House statement is any indication ~ “The President and the Crown Prince are committed to close cooperation to advance our shared goals of security, stability, and prosperity across the Middle East and beyond. The two leaders talked about cutting off support for terrorists, resolving Saudi Arabia’s dispute with Qatar, economic cooperation and a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.” The brief interaction was essentially a continuation of Mr Trump’s talks with the Saudi king last month. Riyadh has cemented its equation with Washington close to 16 years after 9/11. Geostrategy has doubtless been one of the determinants. The upheaval follows a series of moves from the usually cautious kingdom. In recent weeks, it has recalibrated relations with Washington. Indeed, the diplomatic offensive to blockade Qatar has been led by Bin Salman’s office. Furthermore, he has pressed ahead with the war in Yemen and an ambitious economic and cultural reformation at home. Bin Salman has played a pivotal role in recent developments, diplomatic as much as domestic. Indeed, as his profile and powers increased, he was given a free hand by the monarch in most aspects of societal import in a theocratic kingdom. It is now more than obvious that the king’s game-theory was crafted and set to match President Trump’s agenda. By contrast, Bin Nayef has now been removed from all his positions. His role in the reform programme was minimal, and he was given little or no opportunity to interact with President Trump during the latter’s visit, a development that is widely seen to have precipitated what Iran has called a “soft coup”.