Long before the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue was re-established in 2017, and in almost its first major diplomatic outreach under Prime Minister Modi, India had taken up engagement with Pacific Island countries with the establishment of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC). At the first meeting of the forum in Suva, Fiji, in November 2014, the Prime Minister had laid out a blueprint for cooperation in fields as diverse as a blue economy, oil and natural gas, mining information technology and healthcare. The second meeting of the forum took place the following year in Jaipur, where leaders of the 14 Pacific Island countries participated.
The third meeting of the Forum took place in Papua New Guinea eight years later, amidst growing concerns that China is expanding its footprint in these island nations. Increasingly, these nations, which were once considered a part of the Australian sphere of influence, have become the focal point of rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Even as Mr. Modi was concluding the meeting of the FIPIC, Papua New Guinea, the largest of the islands in terms of population, was preparing to welcome American Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and to sign a new security pact in terms of which Washington will provide $45 million to the country to help improve security cooperation, and in mitigating impacts of climate change.
This follows a deal between Solomon Islands and China last year whereby Beijing was allowed to dock its warships on the islands and send security forces to “assist in maintaining social order”. Just as that deal was criticized, both by islanders and in the West, for pushing the Solomon Islands into Beijing’s lap, Mr. Blinken’s visit has drawn protests from many in Papua New Guinea who are concerned that a security pact with Washington will draw Beijing’s ire on an island nation which needs to accord the highest priority to survival from climate change impacts.
The Pacific islands are in the front lines of the climate battle, as rising sea levels are projected to threaten their existence in the next few decades. Thus while the island nations would like to cash in on the increased assistance offered by the world’s large powers they are wary of becoming pawns in global geopolitics. It is against this backdrop that the exceptionally warm welcome offered by Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape to Mr. Modi must be viewed.
Mr. Marape, who broke convention in more ways than one while greeting his counterpart, described India as the leader of the global South, a careful choice of words that while hinting at growing discomfort with the security implications of the USChina rivalry expresses hope of enhanced cooperation with a country that may not seek excessive strategic advantages.
Mr. Modi was savvy enough to pick up the cue and told Mr. Marape India supported a “free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific” even as he promised to share India’s capabilities in digital technology, space technology, climate change and environmental protection. These are words that the islanders would have yearned to hear. But the immediacy of the existential threat the islands face means FIPIC will have to step up the frequency and intensity of its engagements, especially if India is to play a key role in the Pacific.