A day before Prime Minister Modi departed for the BRICS+ summit in Kazan, India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, mentioned that “(an) agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).” He subsequently added, “What it will entail is that in pending areas under discussion, patrolling and indeed grazing activities, wherever applicable, will revert to the situation as it was in 2020.” This was iterated by the External Affairs Minister, Dr Jaishankar, at a different forum. The Chinese also confirmed the Indian announcement, though a day later. Lin Jian, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, mentioned, “China and India, through diplomatic and military channels, maintained close communication recently over border-related issues. The two sides have now reached a solution.”
Neither side gave further details. The timing behind the agreement was to facilitate the Modi-Xi summit in Kazan, which was announced a day later. It was evident what was reached prior to the BRICS+ summit was a basic understanding to facilitate the meeting as also a successful BRICS+ summit. The last BRICS summit was marred by India-China tensions. Indian troops will now access their claim lines in both Depsang and Demchok. However, other regions, where buffer zones had been created, are not part of this agreement. These would be handled subsequently. India seeks patrolling rights to all its claim lines. Reports mention a similar agreement for ‘sensitive regions’ in Arunachal, details of which are currently unavailable. To prevent clashes between patrols in the future, both sides will share details of patrolling in advance. The agreement does not, in any way, impact existing claims of both nations. Both nations are currently pulling back from their forward deployment. Each stage is being monitored by patrols and UAVs.
Trust, which suffered a setback with the Chinese intrusion, would need to be re-built prior to India even considering disengagement and de-induction of additional troops. In all likelihood, troops would remain in-situ during the forthcoming winter. The irony that the Modi-Xi summit happened in Russia, a nation under sanctions, criticized by the West for invading Ukraine, cannot be lost on the world. What could have led to this agreement? Geopolitical changes, including on-going conflicts, tensions and increasing sanctions, have compelled nations to seek alternatives to confrontation. No conflict, despite one side possessing strong military power, Russia and Israel being examples, has resulted in a decisive victory.
Further, if BRICS is to succeed, India and China, the two leading economies, have to be on the same page. The Indo-China summit, signalling an end to confrontation was a boost for the Russian leadership of BRICS. Xi and Modi, in their comments, spoke of re-engaging and rebuilding relationships, though there were minor differences in the final readouts of the two nations. Xi stated, “It is in the fundamental interests of the two countries to correctly grasp the trend of history and direction of development of their relations.” Modi responded “maintaining peace and stability on the frontier should be a priority”, and “mutual trust, respect and sensitivity should be the basis of the relationship.” They also directed their special representatives, Ajit Doval and Wang Yi, to move towards resolving the boundary dispute.
Russia would have definitely pushed both nations to arrive at an agreement. The Russian intent would be that if India and China establish normalcy as also trust is restored, it could open doors for reinvigorating the RIC (Russia, India, China) group. The three nations working together can present a formidable economic and diplomatic challenge to the West. Thus far, the RIC was stalled due to the India-China rivalry. China’s main adversary is not India, but the US. Resolving disputes with India provides it with advantages. China can now concentrate on Taiwan, and also push its claims on disputed shoals in the South and East China Seas, securing itself from US pressures. These are regions where China has been most aggressive in recent times. Thus far, China was concerned about India exploiting a Taiwan conflict, in case its operations stalled, as also of strong Indian naval presence in the Malacca straits.
India’s increased deployment along the LAC had imposed caution on Beijing. China is aware that while it could successfully launch ‘grey zone’ warfare against India, victory in ground operations is unlikely, as Indian armed forces remain formidable. With normalcy, China can re-deploy troops from its Western Theatre Command for Taiwan operations. Without the active involvement of India, the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy would be handicapped. In the recently concluded QUAD summit in Wilmington, the US accepted that it will be India which will be the lead in the Indian Ocean. It was also New Delhi which had initially prevented enhancing engagement levels of the QUAD to that of leaders, in deference to China. It was the encroachment in Ladakh which led to India changing its stand. With the Chinese economy stagnating and heavy duties being imposed on Chinese products in the West, the Indian market presents a suitable alternative.
For India, with reduction in inflows in FDI from the West, those from China would be welcome. Ultimately both would gain – India with investments and technology while China with a market. Reduction in tensions in the North, including de-induction of additional troops would reduce India’s defence revenue expenditure. However, to ensure peace India would always need to be prepared for war; hence capability as also infrastructure development would continue at the same pace. Rebuilding trust would be a slow process. The West, which exploited the Indo-China rivalry, may need to re-evaluate its strategies. While India would never join any anti-US alliance, its close ties with both camps would provide it with leverage in case of any attempts at regime change, diplomatic pressures or economic threats.
What could the future portent? It may be early days yet but the fact that China backed down confirms that its main intent is not India but Taiwan and shoals in the South and East China Seas. This agreement could be the first step in restoration of normalcy along the LAC. It also conveys that China believes that India remains a formidable adversary. Trust with China is the biggest stumbling block. It was China which crossed the red line, forcing India to react. Hence, the onus on rebuilding trust is on Beijing.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)