When the world is battling with the ways to arrest the rapid surge in the various variants of Covid-19, and the picture in India is becoming grimmer by the day, Japan’s Prime Minister is determined to hold the Olympics starting in July despite the fact that he declared another round of emergency in four prefectures ~ Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo ~ effective from 25 April until 11 May to contain a fourth wave of the virus.
It makes absolutely no sense to go ahead to hold the event. Japan had already passed through two states of emergency and three waves of the pandemic, though the casualties it reported pale in comparison to many countries, including India. The declaration of emergency for the third time followed the fourth wave that was triggered by deadlier and more contagious variants of the virus. Japan seems to have learnt no lesson from its past mistakes.
While the first state of emergency encompassed a broad swathe of business closure requirements, the second was executed more narrowly and targeted bars and restaurants. The third state of emergency effectively mandates department stores, shopping centres, movie theatres and other large commercial facilities to close and thus attempts to strike a greater balance between virus containment and economic recovery.
Genomic screening or blood tests used to analyse the results of polymerase chain reaction tests showed that variants accounted for more than 80 per cent of screened cases in the four prefectures where the emergency will apply. It is feared that the original strain of Covid-19 will be overtaken completely by variants by May.
The health care system is already under incredible stress, though not like that in India. Normally Japanese people are lawabiding and are expected to follow government decisions but that is no panacea to the aggressive surge of the variants. It may be recalled that during the entirety of the first state of emergency and most of the second, those requests were strictly voluntary. It was in February, after the country’s virus laws were revised, that it became possible for governors to impose monetary fines on businesses that failed to comply with repeated requests to reduce or suspend operations.
Private industry is unhappy with the latest emergency as it has already suffered the worst of an economic slump. As expected, there were mixed reactions from the people engaged in sectors that came under the purview of the emergency declaration. In particular, people engaged in restaurants, tourism and other related industries were unhappy. The people will not be able to enjoy the Golden Week holiday period that falls within the 17 days when the emergency will be in place.
While some felt the period was “too short” to stem the surge, others felt it was “reasonable”. Despite the grim situation that is becoming grimmer by the day, it is amazing that the President of the Tokyo Olympic organising committee Seiko Hashimoto sticks to the position that cancelling the event amid the virus surge is not being considered. It appears that any kind of counter measures to stem the resurgence of the virus are unlikely to work in such a short time.
There are many questions that remain unanswered such as whether spectators will be allowed at the games’ venues at all. The issue of vaccinating the people is also unlikely to start before the end of the Golden Week. Most people across the country are not in favour of hosting the Games, despite the government and organising committee’s efforts to convince the public.
Amazingly, amid so many uncertainties, Suga backs the organising committee’s decision and pledges the games will be “safe and secure”. The latest virus emergency could also dampen the country’s economic recovery by further weakening consumption. The Daiwa Institute of Research has projected that a month-long state of emergency could trigger a loss in gross domestic product of up to ¥600 billion ($5.6 billion).
Due to the impact of the emergency measures, the economy will possibly see negative growth in the current quarter. Many analysts had expected the economy to rebound in the April-June period from a downturn in the previous quarter, when the second state of emergency was in place in parts of the country including Tokyo, Osaka and other urban areas. Under that emergency, the food services industry, including restaurants and bars that had been asked to close early, had been hit hard.
With the third round of emergency, economists are pessimistic and forecast a contraction in the world’s thirdlargest economy. After alcohol-serving establishments and major commercial facilities such as departmental stores, shopping malls and amusement parks are closed temporarily, the more comprehensive third emergency is estimated to reduce the country’s GDP by ¥600 billion per month. Suga however feels that the impact on the economy will not be so big but analysts rubbish this claim.
It is also feared that if the resurgence of the virus is not stemmed after the emergency ends, thereby necessitating Suga to expand the emergency nationwide, the economy could face considerable damage. While the accommodation and food services industries have already suffered significant dips in sales as a result of the pandemic and subsequent crisis measures, damage from the fresh emergency could be more evident in other sectors such as retail and entertainment service providers.
The economy is going to be severely impacted and the recovery will be forced to slow down further. Health experts doubt if a new state of emergency would be effective, saying that the 17 days allotted to the emergency period is too short to gauge whether the curbs have worked when the steps are due to be lifted. They warn against lifting the steps if the hospital care situation has not improved by the time the curbs expire.
Given the enormity of the situation and with new variants adding to the crisis, Suga sticking to the decision to go ahead with the Olympics could leave a more damaging impact on the nation. Suga need not stand for glory the event could bring but his priority needs to be on the well-being of the people. He should announce cancellation of the event forthwith.
(The writer is Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, Ministry of Culture, Government of India, New Delhi)